\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 389 Shenzhen Lifotronic Technology Co.Ltd(688389) )
Core view
Q4 revenue and profit increased rapidly, and the single quarter performance exceeded expectations. The company released the performance express of 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 778 million yuan in the whole year of 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 40.50%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 190 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.99%, and the non net profit deducted was 163 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.96%; Quarter by quarter, Q4 achieved a revenue of 234 million yuan (year-on-year + 45%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 68 million yuan (year-on-year + 33%), and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of 62 million yuan (year-on-year + 38%). The performance of the single quarter increased rapidly, exceeding our expectations.
The product line has been continuously improved, and the organizational structure has been changed and optimized. On the one hand, the high growth of the company’s performance comes from the breakthrough in self-developed projects: in the past 21 years, the company has added 100 products registered and certified outside China, including 35 new registration certificates for electrochemiluminescence detection projects, and more than 80 detection projects, which further cover 12 categories, such as tumor markers, thyroid function, sex hormones, inflammation and myocardial markers, and are still improving. On the other hand, the company has optimized and changed the marketing organization structure, significantly improved the professional ability of Chinese and international marketing systems, improved the development and management, marketing and coverage of sales channels, and driven the growth of revenue.
The high-speed electrochemiluminescence instrument is listed, and the market performance is worth looking forward to. The company’s first “big luminescence” instrument ecl9000 has been certified on January 28. The detection speed of a single instrument has reached 300t / h, which is the highest speed of electrochemical method. Ecl9000 has strong flow operation ability and can be flexibly assembled. It can realize up to 4 modules in series up to 1200t / h, and can be combined with biochemical analyzer to form an assembly line. It is expected to be gradually imported and replaced in the hospital inspection department. We believe that the launch of ecl9000 has further enhanced the competitiveness of the company’s electrochemiluminescence, which is expected to drive a significant increase in installed capacity and unit yield, and the market performance is worth looking forward to.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Due to the company’s self-development and registration of a large number of products in the past 21 years and the increase in R & D investment, we raised the prediction of the company’s R & D expense rate from 18% to 22%. It is predicted that the company’s earnings per share in 2021 will be 0.45 yuan (originally predicted to be 0.49 yuan), and it will be 0.66/0.91 yuan respectively in the future 22-23 years. Based on the valuation of comparable companies, we will give 56 times PE in the next 21 years, and the target price will be 25.20 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk that R & D progress is less than expected, the risk that product sales are less than expected, and the risk of intensified industry competition.
