\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 001 Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) )
In the end, innovation has been developing from a vitamin leader to a fine chemical leader: the company insists on independent innovation and vigorously builds production bases, successively conquering the core technologies of many products, expanding the business scope with nourishment sectors as the core, entering the flavor and fragrance market horizontally, and gradually opening up new material fields. At present, it has gradually grown into the leader of China’s fine chemical industry. From 1993 to 2020, Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) successively conquered high barrier varieties such as Trimethylhydroquinone and isophytol, VA, biotin, coenzyme Q10, citral, PPS and other key intermediates of VE, showing excellent innovation ability. At present, the three major business segments of nutriment, flavors and fragrances and new materials have significant synergy effect, and the advantages of industrial chain integration are obvious. Future Ltd will rely on its own excellent innovation genes to continuously improve the layout of the industrial chain, and gradually grow into a leading global fine chemical industry.
Actively build a “biological + chemical” dual platform and move from “cycle” to “growth”: in October 2020, the production of Heilongjiang biological fermentation phase I project opened the curtain for the company to enter the field of biological fermentation. At present, the fermentation phase II project is under construction and is expected to be put into operation in 2022. After the completion of the company’s fermentation project, the development mode of “bio + chemical” platform will be mature, and the vitamins and flavors and fragrances of the company will continue to enrich. The bio fermentation platform will become an important driving force for the company to enrich its vitamins and flavors and fragrances. In the future, with the continuous improvement of the company’s product layout, it is expected to gradually reduce the impact of vitamin, a cyclical product, on the company’s profits, the company’s profit model will be more diversified and stable, and the profit center is expected to rise steadily.
Methionine is expected to achieve import substitution, new flavor and flavor varieties continue to enrich product matrix: the company produces methionine efficiently by cyanide alcohol, and the capacity will reach 300 thousand tons / year in 2023 when the construction projects are put into operation, China will become the leading enterprise of methionine in China. In terms of flavors and fragrances, the company has introduced new varieties with the platform of bio + chemical industry, and has cooperated with well-known international companies to provide raw materials. With the upgrading of consumption, the demand for flavors and fragrances will continue to improve, and the new varieties of fragrances and fragrances of the company are expected to meet various market demands.
Adiponitrile has entered the pilot stage, and the development prospect of the company’s enabling new materials is broad: adiponitrile is the raw material for the production of nylon 66. The company has the experience in the hydrocyanic acid industry. Through independent research and development, the company has successfully prepared adiponitrile by adopting the most advanced butadiene production process with cost advantage. At present, it is in the pilot stage. Zhejiang Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) nylon material Co., Ltd. was newly established in March 2021, which shows the company’s confidence in entering the nylon market. In terms of PPS and PPA, the company actively cooperates with DMS, Shaoxing Nayan and qinjin to accelerate development and actively layout product R & D. after the new production capacity is put into operation, the company will become a leader in China’s PPS and PPA industry.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: according to the performance express released by the company, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.309 billion yuan in 21 years, so the profit forecast for 21 years was lowered; Considering that VE is expected to maintain a business cycle of 2-3 years, which is good for the company’s performance and the expansion of the company’s VC, methionine and other production capacity, the profit forecast for 22-23 years is raised. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 43.09 (down 4%) / 54.16 (up 6%) / 6.121 (up 7%) billion yuan in 21-23 years, corresponding to EPS of 1.67/2.10/2.37 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the product price fluctuates, the project promotion is less than expected, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
