\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 598 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) )
Performance summary: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.338 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 213.72%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 501 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 197.25%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 460 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 215.31%. The performance deviates from the previous forecast ceiling.
The production capacity has been greatly improved and the scale advantage has been highlighted. In 2021, the company continued to expand production capacity, IPO raised investment projects and over raised capital projects reached production capacity one after another, convertible bond raised investment projects progressed smoothly and the production capacity increased significantly. In 2021, the sales volume of carbon matrix composites was 1553 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 246.36%; The average sales price is about 861 yuan / kg, the gross profit margin is 57.23%, and the non net profit deducted by the unit is about 296 yuan / kg; The sales volume of 21q4 is 536 tons, the average price is about 840 yuan / kg, the gross profit margin is 55.55%, and the non net profit deducted by the unit is about 284 yuan / kg. The company's products maintain a certain price reduction every year to benefit customers and expand the market share. In 2021, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 57.27%, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.32pp; The net interest rate is 37.45%; A year-on-year decrease of 2.08pp. With the substantial increase of production and marketing scale, the scale advantage is prominent, and the decline of net profit margin is less than that of gross profit margin.
There are sufficient orders on hand and the supply of raw materials is guaranteed. By the end of 2021, the amount of orders on hand of the company was 973 million yuan (including tax). Since last year, the supply of carbon fiber has remained tight, and the price has also increased significantly. In the first three quarters of 2021, the average purchase price of carbon fiber of the company was 199600 yuan / ton, an increase of 14.25% over the average purchase price in 2020. The company has increased the stock and reserve of raw materials. By the end of the year, the company's inventory had increased by 47.02% year-on-year to 47.02 billion yuan. Among them, raw materials were about 129 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127 million yuan.
Continue to invest in R & D and layout the second growth curve. In 2021, the company's R & D expenses were 64.97 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87.60%. R & D is mainly invested in carbon fiber preforms, heaters, carbon / ceramic composites, silicon carbide and other fields. Based on the company's technical accumulation in the field of carbon matrix composites, the company is actively developing carbon matrix material industrial projects such as the third generation semiconductor silicon carbide thermal field, hydrogen fuel cell carbon paper, carbon ceramic brake disc, ultra pure materials for semiconductors and ultra pure carbon powder. In the future, with the launch of convertible bond raised investment projects and fixed increase raised investment projects, the market share of photovoltaic hot field products is expected to further increase, and the business layout in new fields will also create a second growth curve for the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company's capacity continues to expand and consolidate the leading position of photovoltaic thermal field. Sufficient orders in hand, actively prepare goods and lock in the supply of raw materials. Hydrogen energy, carbon / ceramic composites, silicon carbide and other businesses are expected to become the second growth curve of the company. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 647 million yuan, 834 million yuan and 967 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 35, 27 and 23 times of PE respectively, with a compound growth rate of 24.49%. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw material carbon fiber has risen sharply, and the competition in photovoltaic heat field industry has intensified.
