Key investment points:
Market review: the trend of home appliance market is weak, and the valuation level has fallen sharply
Since the beginning of 2021 (as of November 30, 2021), household appliances The (CITIC) industry fell 24.12%, ranking 28th among the 30 CITIC primary industries. The Shanghai stock index rose 2.61%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 7.28%, and the trend of the home appliance industry was significantly weaker than the market. In terms of segments, except lighting, electricians and other sectors, which rose slightly by 0.34%, the other sub boards fell. Among them, the white appliance sector fell the most, down 29.98%. Secondly, the kitchen appliance board Block fell 15.67%, small household appliances fell 11.86%, and black household appliances fell 1.14%. From the perspective of valuation, as of November 30, 2021, At present, the overall valuation multiple of the household appliance industry is 17.8 times (pe-ttm, excluding negative value), the valuation decreased by 32.58% compared with 26.4 times in the same period last year, and it is at the middle and lower reaches of 30 CITIC first-class industries. Since the beginning of the year, the valuation premium rate of home appliance industry compared with CSI 300 has been declining. As of November 30, the valuation premium rate of CSI 300 was 12.3 times, and the valuation premium rate of home appliance industry compared with CSI 300 was 144.72%.
Investment strategy in 2022
In 2021, under multiple influences, the home appliance industry was under pressure as a whole, and the valuation fell sharply. With the stabilization and decline of raw material and shipping prices and the marginal improvement of the demand side, the home appliance sector is expected to usher in the valuation and repair market. In terms of sectors: white power sector, the valuation of white power sector has continued to callback since the beginning of the year. We believe that it has long-term allocation value at present; The prosperity of kitchen appliances, integrated stoves, dishwashers and other emerging categories of household appliances continues. In the future, with the gradual increase of penetration, the scale of the industry is expected to further expand; Affected by last year's high base, the overall performance of the small household appliance sector this year is less than expected. With the gradual weakening of the high base effect and the gradual recovery of demand, the industry is expected to usher in positive growth again.
In terms of investment suggestions, the investment strategy of the household appliance industry in 2022 can mainly focus on the following two points: 1. Pay attention to the valuation and repair market. In 2021, the valuation of the home appliance sector was significantly corrected, especially the white electricity sector. With the gradual digestion of negative factors, it is expected to usher in the valuation repair market. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of undervalued value whose performance exceeded expectations and ushered in an inflection point. 2. Focus on high growth track targets. The prosperity of emerging household appliances continues to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of emerging household appliances industry who enjoy the high growth dividend of the industry. To sum up, the industry is temporarily given a "optimistic" rating. It is recommended to pay attention to Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (000333), Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) (600690), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) (000651), Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) (688696), Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) (002677) and Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (002705).
Risk statement
The risk of macroeconomic environment fluctuation; The risk of recurrent outbreaks; Risk of exchange loss caused by exchange rate fluctuation; Risk of serious decline in industry terminal demand; The risk of declining prosperity of overseas exports.
