Data released by the Federation of passenger cars: in November, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 2.15 million, a month on month increase of + 8.9%, a year-on-year increase of – 5.1%, a year-on-year increase of + 6% compared with November 19; The retail sales volume was 1.816 million, a year-on-year increase of – 12.7%, compared with – 6% in November 19.
Chip supply gradually improved and sales continued to pick up in November. Since the end of September, the chip supply has gradually improved, and the production and sales of passenger cars have climbed month by month. In November, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 2.15 million, a month on month increase of + 8.9%, a year-on-year increase of – 5.1%, a year-on-year increase of + 6% over November 19; The retail sales volume was 1.816 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 12.7%, a month on month increase of + 6.0%, a year-on-year increase of – 6% compared with November 19, and a month on month increase of + 4% compared with November in recent years. The retail trend in November this year was strong. In terms of brands: (1) in November, 210000 luxury brand cars were retailed, with a year-on-year increase of – 19%, a month on month increase of + 17%, and a year-on-year increase of + 4% compared with that of 19 years; (2) 780000 mainstream joint venture brands were retailed, with a year-on-year increase of – 23%, a month on month increase of + 1%, and a year-on-year increase of – 21%. (3) The retail sales of self owned brands reached 830000 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 2%, a month on month increase of + 8%, and a year-on-year increase of + 11% compared with the same period of 19 years. The leading enterprises of self owned brands have strong industrial chain toughness and have achieved significant growth in the new energy market, and the equivalence ratio of SAIC passenger vehicles has increased significantly.
The new energy vehicle market has diversified and the industry penetration has accelerated. According to the passenger Federation, in November, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 429000, a month on month increase of + 17.9% and a year-on-year increase of + 131.7%. Among them, the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 85000, a year-on-year increase of + 187.2%; The wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 343000, a year-on-year increase of + 121.1%. Tesla, leading enterprises of independent brands and “weixiaoli” and other new forces have excellent sales performance. The wholesale sales of manufacturers have exceeded 10000 units: Byd Company Limited(002594) 91000 units, Tesla China 53000 units, SAIC GM Wuling 50000 units, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 16000 units, Xiaopeng 16000 units, GAC EA 15000 units, Chery 14000 units, ideal 13000 units, Geely 13000 units There are 12000 SAIC passenger cars, 12000 SAIC Volkswagen, 11000 Weilai cars, 11000 FAW Volkswagen and 10000 Hezhong cars. In November, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers reached 19.9%, showing an accelerated trend of improvement. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 33.2%, much higher than 3.9% of mainstream joint venture brands.
In November, the automobile consumption index improved month on month, and the dealer inventory increased. According to China Automobile Circulation Association, the automobile consumption index in November was 72.3, with a year-on-year increase of – 9.6% and a month on month increase of + 9.4%. In November, the dealer inventory early warning index was 55.4%, with a year-on-year increase of -5.1pct and a month on month increase of + 2.9pct.
Outlook for the auto market in December: the recent epidemic has spread around the world twice, but the dark moment of auto chip supply has passed, and the chip supply is gradually improving. With the alleviation of the chip problem, the automobile supply has improved, and the backlog of market demand has been partially released. December is the winter peak sales period of China’s passenger car market. The promotion at the end of the year and the early release of some car purchase demand before the Spring Festival are expected to promote the continuous recovery of the car market. We expect that the car production and sales volume in December will continue to increase month on month compared with November, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to be positive.
Investment suggestion: from 21q4 onwards, with the gradual easing of chip shortage and the improvement of supply side, the automotive industry is expected to enter the inventory adding cycle. It is suggested that the vehicle sector pay attention to the abundant orders on hand. With the easing of “core shortage”, it has strong production and sales growth elasticity, and the medium and long-term competitiveness is continuously strengthened [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Geely Automobile, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], And the head enterprise of new forces in car making [Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Weilai]. In addition, in the “active inventory” stage, the demand for parts and components of vehicle enterprises is expected to rebound. At the same time, the price of raw materials and sea freight have stabilized at the high level of 21q4 or even partially dropped. We believe that the expectation of parts and components sector at the current time point is poor and there is more room for performance repair. It is suggested to pay attention to the parts sector: (1) Q3’s performance hit the bottom, Q4’s performance is expected to reverse upward, and [ Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) ] with large performance flexibility; (2) there are many layout in the automotive electronics field, benefiting from the improvement of automotive chip supply, and the shipment is expected to increase [ Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ]; (3) Benefiting from the high prosperity of new energy vehicles [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (coverage of new power generation group), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) , Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (coverage of new power generation group), Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.Ltd(300432) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], etc.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is declining, the effect of policy implementation is less than expected, and the shortage of chips is more than expected.
