Ping An View:
New energy vehicles: with high prosperity, the United States relays to central Europe. In the Chinese market, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles from January to October 2021 was 2.54 million, with a year-on-year increase of 176.6%. It is expected that the sales volume in 21 years will be about 3.4 million, with a year-on-year increase of more than 140%. The tone of subsidy and double integral policy has been set, and the marginal impact is weakening; The proportion of private consumption and independent brands has increased. It is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 5.1 million in 22 years, with a year-on-year increase of 50%. In the European market, the sales volume of electric vehicles in major countries increased significantly and the penetration rate increased significantly in 21 years; The automobile market is obviously affected by the lack of core, which affects the full release of the demand for electric vehicles to a certain extent; It is estimated that the sales volume of electric vehicles in Europe will reach 2.2 million in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of more than 60%. The tightening of European carbon emission targets and high government subsidies are expected to drive the continued high growth of European electric vehicle market. In the U.S. market, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 420000 from January to September of 21, and the annual sales volume is expected to reach 660000, double year-on-year; The tax credit policy has been gradually implemented, the single vehicle subsidy has been significantly increased, and the electric pickup truck was opened in the first year. The policy support + large supply is expected to stimulate the rise of private consumption. The United States will take over China and Europe and become a new growth pole in the world. The sales of electric vehicles are expected to reach about 1.36 million in 22 years, doubling year-on-year. It is estimated that the global sales volume of electric vehicles will exceed 9 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of more than 50%.
Power battery: the profit is expected to hit the bottom and rise, and new technology leads the upgrading of the industry. From January to October 2021, the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery reached 107.5gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 168%, and the average power consumption per vehicle decreased. It is estimated that the total installed capacity will reach about 140gwh in 21 years, more than doubling year-on-year growth; The installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery is expected to exceed 200gwh in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 40%. In 22 years, the global power battery capacity exceeded 1200gwh, and the market ushered in a significant expansion. Since the fourth quarter of the 20th year, the price of battery materials has generally increased, which has caused great pressure on the cost side of battery enterprises; With the improvement of supply and demand in the past 22 years, the price of multi link materials is expected to fall in the second half of the year, and the profits of battery enterprises are expected to be repaired. In terms of market pattern, the leading enterprises consolidated their market share, and the second tier enterprises ushered in a good opportunity for development under the background that the main engine plants competed for high-quality resources. In terms of technology upgrading, 4680 large cylinders are about to enter the large-scale production period. Mainstream battery enterprises have stepped up their capacity of large cylinders. Tesla, BMW and other car enterprises have made it clear that large cylinders are one of the technical routes for carrying their own models; CTP / CTC / body integration technology is also an important layout direction.
Battery materials: the volume and price have risen in 21 years, and there is still a supply bottleneck in 22 years. In terms of positive electrode, the prices of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased significantly, and the profits of enterprises generally improved; It is expected that the lithium carbonate capacity will remain tight in 22 years, and the price of cathode materials is expected to continue to rise. The proportion of iron and lithium will be increased, and the technical route will remain differentiated for a long time. In terms of negative electrode, due to the shortage of graphitization capacity caused by power restriction, the price of negative electrode increased; It is expected that there will still be a supply bottleneck in graphitization in 22 years, and the prices of graphitization and negative electrode will remain strong. In the past 21 years, due to the insufficient self supplied graphitization capacity and the rising price of outsourcing graphitization, the gross profit margin of the enterprise declined; In 22 years, with the improvement of self built graphitization capacity, profitability is expected to recover. In terms of diaphragm, the overall price remained relatively stable and increased to a certain extent in the fourth quarter. Subject to the production capacity of imported equipment, it is expected to be in a tight balance in 22 years, the marginal expectation of price is better, and the enterprise is expected to improve its profitability through cost reduction through large-scale effect. In terms of electrolyte, in 21 years, the price of hexafluoride increased by more than 6 times, VC increased by more than 2 times, and the price of electrolyte increased sharply; The profits of enterprises are divided, and the profit margin of electrolyte manufacturers with raw material capacity has increased significantly. Electrolyte is one of the segments of the battery industry chain with the best performance in 20-21 years. With the release of new capacity and the improvement of the supply and demand pattern of raw materials, electrolyte needs to rely more on the logic of volume increase.
Investment suggestion: under the background of chip shortage in 2021, the vigorous development of new energy vehicles will greatly exceed market expectations. We believe that the bottom force of industry growth comes more from the improvement of product power and the continuous opening of the market end. This trend of supply demand resonance will continue to spread. Looking forward to 2022, the momentum of the new energy vehicle market is still strong, the logic of medium and long-term growth of the industry is being more verified, and the rating of “stronger than the big market” of the industry is maintained. From the perspective of investment, pay attention to the following opportunities: 1) the outbreak of overseas markets led by the United States, pay attention to the supply chain targets with high proportion in overseas markets, continue to strongly recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , recommend Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , and pay attention to Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , and beiteri; 2) The profits of battery enterprises are expected to hit the bottom and rebound. It is recommended to pay attention to second-line manufacturers with high profit recovery flexibility, strongly recommend Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , recommend Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , and pay attention to Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) ; 3) Negative pole graphitization, lithium carbonate, copper foil and other links will continue to be tense. It is suggested to pay attention to the subdivided fields with production capacity bottlenecks and prices are expected to continue to rise, and pay attention to Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) .
Risk tips: 1) risk of raw material supply: at present, the supply of some links in the industrial chain is still not optimistic, and the supply of key links such as IGBT chip and negative electrode graphitization is still tight, which will affect the delivery of orders for new energy vehicle electric drive and other products. If the shortage of relevant links is not alleviated in the future, it will have an adverse impact on the demand of the industry. 2) The risk of slowing down the growth of electric vehicle production and marketing: the policy continuity is lower than expected, and the technological progress is slower than expected, affecting the promotion of electric vehicles; Spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles occurs frequently, or causes consumers’ concerns about safety problems, which has a negative impact on sales. 3) Risk of rapid change of technical route: the rapid conversion of battery technical route may bring the risk of substantial impairment of fixed assets, and the expected rate of return is relatively unstable. The technology iteration speed of cathode material and battery link is fast. If it does not continue to invest in R & D, it may be overtaken by subsequent enterprises.
