1. The innovation direction remains unchanged and the rhythm is adjusted. China’s innovative drugs have entered the development stage of upgrading from me too to me better and fist in class, and entered the transition period of innovation and development. The stock generic drug business is affected by centralized purchase, and the inner volume caused by the cluster of me too targets has begun to appear. With the release of tumor clinical guidelines and the landing of medical insurance negotiations, innovative drugs are expected to usher in a wave of sand. Enterprises with sustainable competitiveness will adjust the pace and achieve leapfrog development through innovation, upgrading and internationalization.
2. New trends and business formats of cdmo services. The trend of cdmo transfer to China is superimposed with the order elasticity brought by the R & D breakthrough of global covid-19 drugs, and cdmo is expected to usher in accelerated growth. New generation drugs such as mRNA vaccine, gene therapy and cell therapy have been continuously supported by capital after the epidemic, promoting the efficiency of R & D and transformation production. Compared with traditional small molecule drugs, the technology of gene and cell therapy is complex and the investment is huge. It has more support demand for cdmo, and also gives cdmo industry more sustainable development space. China’s cdmo industry with first mover advantage is more competitive.
3. Rise of pharmaceutical manufacturing and explore the hidden King behind the scenes. China is the largest producer and exporter of epidemic prevention materials in the world. From low value consumables for protection to diagnostic reagents to covid-19 vaccine, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industry is the backbone of the global market. The breakthrough of domestic covid-19 therapeutic drugs is expected to become a new export increment in the future. Behind the rise of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) manufacturing is the improvement of supporting industries such as pharmaceutical equipment, recombinant protein reagent, antibody reagent, low value consumables and scientific research equipment. With the increase of R & D investment and technical requirements, upstream supporting industries have gradually developed from small industries hidden behind the scenes to large industries. As a supporting role, its development avoids the uncertainty of single variety innovation, benefits from the downstream industrial upgrading as a whole, superimposes the localization promoted by policy and market synergy, and is expected to have a number of excellent leading enterprises.
4. Main investment lines in 2022: ① cdmo: the trend of transfer to China, superimposing the flexibility of oral covid-19 drug orders, and embracing new business forms such as mRNA vaccine, gene and cell therapy. ② Pharmaceutical equipment: facing the demand for capacity construction brought by the accelerated listing of innovative drugs, the automation and intelligent upgrading of pharmaceutical equipment + the extension to the consumables of front-end process equipment such as biological reaction separation. ③ Scientific research instrument: domestic replacement of medium and high-end mass spectrometer. ④ Low value consumables: China’s industrial chain is complete, more significant cost advantages are obtained, and the export continues to expand + the development from low-end dressing to high-end dressing; ⑤ Scientific research reagents: the continuous demand for covid-19 detection and drug R & D, the continuous promotion of basic scientific research innovation + the continuous enrichment of categories have led to the improvement of the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises. ⑥ Class II vaccine: herpes zoster, pneumonia combined vaccine, HPV and other large varieties are on the market. ⑦ Retail pharmacies: the concentration is improved, and the chain leaders continue to pay premium + the long-term increment brought by the outflow of prescriptions.
Risk warning: uncertainty of covid-19 epidemic impact; Risk of drug bidding price reduction; Risks related to various industries, etc.
