The ppi-cpi scissors gap narrowed, focusing on the downstream transmission of costs. In terms of CPI, it rose 2.3% year-on-year in November, 0.8pct higher than that in October, reaching a new high since September of 20 years. In November, CPI rose by 0.4% month on month, down 0.3pct from the previous month. PPI: in November, it rose by 12.9% year-on-year, down 0.6pct from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 17.0%, down 0.9pct from the previous month. On a month on month basis, PPI rose from 2.5% last month to flat, and the price of means of production fell from 3.3% to 0.1%; The price of means of living increased by 0.4% and expanded by 0.3pct. With the rapid rise in the price of basic energy materials such as coal and metal stopped, and the ppi-cpi scissors gap may peak, it is expected to further narrow in the follow-up, and pay attention to the cost to transmit investment opportunities to the downstream.
Fine chemicals ushered in price rise and fully benefited from the narrowing of ppi-cpi scissors gap. From the beginning of the year to October, global commodity prices showed a unilateral upward trend: Brent crude oil, thermal coal futures and NYMEX natural gas prices have increased by 66.8%, 179.4% and 144.2% respectively since the beginning of the year, reaching the highest points of the year respectively. The price of chemicals also accelerated upward. According to the wind data on October 1, The price of soda ash is 3300 yuan / ton (up 124.3% over the beginning of the year), the price of methanol is 3660 yuan / ton (up 49.2% over the beginning of the year), the price of pure benzene is 7780 yuan / ton (up 80.9% over the beginning of the year), the price of PX is 6448 yuan / ton (up 36.3% over the beginning of the year), and the price of ethylene glycol is 6480 yuan / ton (up 50.5% over the beginning of the year) and other chemical products prices rose sharply, driving PPI to rise continuously. At present, commodity prices peaked and fell: according to the wind data on December 1, the prices of soda ash / methanol / pure benzene / PX / ethylene glycol were 3300 / 2825 / 6390 / 5885 / 4985 yuan / ton respectively, falling to varying degrees compared with the peak in October. Since August, downstream fine chemical prices began to transmit: 3 The price difference of sucralose DMF sucrose accelerated upward after reaching the bottom in August. So far, the price difference has exceeded 300000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 728%; Accelerator M / CZ prices also rebounded from the bottom in August, up 48% / 29% respectively. Fine chemicals are located downstream of the industrial chain and are the hub of price transmission between bulk commodities and end consumer goods. The narrowing of ppi-cpi scissors is expected to benefit fully.
Resumption: when the ppi-cpi scissors difference shrinks, the success rate of the configuration fine chemical industry is high. By reviewing the trend of ppi-cpi price difference since 2010, And downstream chemical industry Compared with the rise and fall of the chemical index, we find that the two show a certain deviation trend. There is a certain lag in the transmission of raw material prices in the fine chemical industry, and the stock price is usually narrower than the ppi-cpi scissors difference. Therefore, we think there may be a higher winning rate in configuring the fine chemical industry at present. In addition, the role of fine chemical industry in carbon neutralization Under the constraints, the extension trend of fine and high-end industrial chain of traditional chemical enterprises is clear, and the proportion of fine chemicals will continue to increase. Enterprises are expected to continuously improve their industrial chain value and look forward to the long-term development space of the leader.
It is suggested to pay attention to: leading fine chemical enterprises Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , Brother Enterprises Holding Co.Ltd(002562) , Quechen Silicon Chemical Co.Ltd(605183) , Hangzhou Juheshun New Material Co.Ltd(605166) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) , etc.
Risk tips: the prices of raw materials and products fluctuate sharply, the terminal demand is less than expected, the global epidemic situation is repeated, etc.
