Review in 2021: there are great changes in the upstream, middle and downstream of the industry. In the past 21 years, due to the shortage of upstream chips and the rise of metal raw materials, the overall profitability of the communication industry has been under pressure. Since the outbreak last year, in order to cope with the surge of traffic, Chinese foreign cloud manufacturers have made a large number of goods preparation to upstream communication manufacturers. As the epidemic slows down, 20q3 starts the destocking cycle. Although the 5g construction slowed down in the first half of this year accelerated in the second half of this year, the demand for superimposed cloud computing weakened, and the main downstream demand of the communication industry remained stable as a whole. However, benefiting from the high prosperity of new energy, some communication manufacturers involved in energy storage and offshore wind power have performed well. In terms of competition pattern, as the leading Huawei began to give up part of the market, some communication enterprises gained new shares and walked out of the performance beyond prosperity.
Prosperity Outlook: in 2021, the capital expenditure of the three operators is expected to increase by 2.3% year-on-year. Since 5g was put into commercial use in 2019, the construction of 5g base stations has been steadily promoted. In the first three quarters of the year, 1.15 million 5g base stations + were built. Looking forward to 2022, China's 5g construction will remain stable as a whole. In the past year, Xinhua's monthly revenue has increased for the first time year-on-year. It is expected that the cloud outlook will pick up in 2022.
investment opportunity
Carbon neutralization promotes the clearing of excess capacity in IDC industry, and the industry competition is expected to return to rationality. In the context of carbon neutrality, a number of policies have been issued to control the energy consumption of data centers. It is expected that the future policies will still maintain a strict attitude towards IDC supply. Energy efficiency has become a new entry threshold for data centers. With the clearing of excess capacity, the industry pattern is expected to become centralized, and data center manufacturers with excellent energy consumption control will stand out.
HVAC equipment is crucial to energy consumption, and investment opportunities for advanced refrigeration are highlighted. The energy consumption generated by air conditioning in the machine room accounts for 40% of the total energy consumption of the data center. Starting from the cooling end is the most effective way to reduce energy consumption. Advanced technologies such as indirect evaporative refrigeration, liquid cooling and seawater cooling can greatly reduce the level of pue. It is expected that there will be great opportunities in the next five years.
The chip shortage is expected to ease next year, and the module cost and supply will usher in double improvement. Chips account for more than half of the module cost, and the chip cost has a great impact on the module cost. Since 20q3, there has been a shortage of chips, and module manufacturers have increased prices to prepare goods, resulting in pressure on the gross margin inventory level. Next year, with the ease of core shortage, the cost and supply of IOT modules are expected to usher in double improvement.
The characteristics of 5g network meet the industrial requirements, and the application opportunity of vertical industry is gradually ripe. First, there is a rigid demand in the industrial scene. 5g can meet the industrial application requirements that 4G could not meet before. It is completed by locally deploying 5g private network
Industrial remote control and other tasks are expected to solve the problem of improving safety that the industry hopes to solve for a long time, and reduce costs and increase efficiency for all walks of life. Second, with the freezing of 5gr16 standard for two years, the pace of commercial application has accelerated, and 5g is
The industrial Internet is expected to accelerate. In the future, in the industrial chain, it is expected to benefit from sensing layer devices such as sensors and industrial modules, network layer devices of gateways and switches, and platform layer facilities such as industrial cloud applications.
Risk tip: 5g construction is less than expected, cloud capex growth is less than expected, and China US trade war intensifies.
