1、 Express Logistics: e-commerce express buying pattern, comprehensive logistics buying layout, cross-border logistics buying dividends
E-commerce express buying pattern: e-commerce express is in the position of switching between the third and fourth stages of the capital cycle. The volume and price of the leading enterprises have increased together, and the cost has improved. It is in the rising channel of roe. In terms of profit margin, after the integration of extreme rabbit Baishi in 2021, the industry Cr5 has reached 79%, superimposed policy protection, optimized the competitive environment of the express industry, and the repair of enterprise profit margin has begun. In terms of turnover rate, in 2022, the capacity construction of leading enterprises will enter a new stage, the expansion of capital expenditure will stop, and the asset turnover rate will return to the rising channel. In terms of subject matter, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Zhongtong express and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) are strongly recommended.
Comprehensive logistics layout: time effective business Express is located in phase IV of the capital cycle. The leading Shunfeng has built a deep moat. At present, Shunfeng is in the investment period of diversified layout, with high revenue growth and high capital expenditure. With SF moving from brand synergy to business synergy and increasing capacity utilization, new businesses gradually develop to the middle and late stage of growth and start to make profits. It is optimistic that SF Express's leading comprehensive logistics layout will bring investors sufficient profit and market value growth space.
Cross border logistics buying dividends: cross border e-commerce logistics is currently in the position of switching between the first and second stages of the capital cycle. The leading enterprises fully enjoy the triple dividends of high prosperity, high freight rates and business model upgrading. Optimistic about the transformation of Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) cross-border e-commerce logistics, the leading air freight forwarder.
2、 Airport aviation: the inflection point still needs to wait patiently, and it is recommended to seize the opportunity at the bottom
The epidemic situation is the decisive variable at present. Although the trend has been clear, it is difficult to grasp the rhythm. It is expected that the epidemic prevention policy will not change until at least the second half of next year. The airport sector and the aviation sector are currently in the bottom range. After the epidemic prevention policy turns in the future, the two sectors will definitely lead the whole industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the bottom opportunity.
There are deterministic valuation repair opportunities at the airport. Airports in first tier cities are high-quality core assets of China's civil aviation industry. Although the epidemic continues to impact, their essence as a high-end traffic platform has not changed, and their monopoly position has not changed. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the airport has heavy taxes and extravagance, which is expected to drive the realization efficiency of airport traffic to improve again, but the growth still needs time, so it should not be expected too much in the short term.
Aviation has the dual logic of valuation repair and supply and demand elasticity. Among the four cyclical factors of aviation stocks, the demand cycle plays a leading role, the demand determines the range of the cycle, and the pattern determines the cycle center. In 2020, the growth rate of industry supply slowed down significantly. It is expected that the growth rate of industry supply will continue to be low during the 14th Five Year Plan period, laying a foundation for the upward cycle of aviation stocks. With the support of Chinese business, the valuation of aviation stocks is undergoing twists and turns, and the future elasticity can be expected.
3、 Centralized transportation, dry transportation and bulk transportation: centralized transportation depends on supply, dry transportation and bulk transportation depends on demand, focusing on changes in supply and demand
Centralized transportation: supply congestion is difficult to solve in the short term, and the new long-term association is expected to further boost its performance
The main logic of the stock price rise in 2021 is the freight rate rise under the mismatch between supply and demand. The main contradiction of the mismatch between supply and demand is supply, that is, the supply chain disorder caused by port congestion. Factors affecting supply chain congestion include: long-term: US port infrastructure and truck capacity had reached the edge of short supply before the epidemic; Short term: ① epidemic situation; ② Port operation in 2022q1 import off-season; ③ The effectiveness of a series of US policies to save the supply chain.
There are two opportunities for centralized transportation in 2022: first, the mode of freight rate rise will transition from immediate to long-term association. At that time, the growth and certainty of the performance of the centralized transportation company will be improved to a certain extent. Second, at present, the short-term factors affecting the supply chain dominate the expected changes. If the short-term ①, ② and ③ factors on the mitigation of supply chain congestion are falsified next year, the valuation of the container shipping company is expected to be repaired to a certain extent.
Dry and loose: supply and demand are weak, and supply and demand mismatch may occur periodically in the process, causing short-term market
Supply side: the absolute value is low, and the growth rate continues to decline. However, we need to pay attention to whether the epidemic will further reduce the effective transport capacity. Demand side: the long-term demand trend of coal and iron ore is downward. It may rebound in the short term due to special climate or other factors. At present, it is in the critical area of tight balance between supply and demand, and the fluctuation of demand will be doubled in price due to the steep short-term supply curve and a large amount of liquidity. Next, the demand side needs to be closely tracked.
4、 Risk tips
In terms of Companies: failure of M & A, bankruptcy caused by cash flow fracture, passive substantial dilution of shares caused by low-cost additional issuance, and the performance of listed companies is lower than expected; Industry: business growth is lower than expected, major policy changes, intensified competition, industrial accidents, etc; Macro aspect: sharp economic fluctuations, geopolitical conflicts, sharp fluctuations in oil prices, re outbreak of the epidemic, etc
