Key investment points:
In February, the mechanical sector was slightly stronger than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. In February, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.11%, and the CITIC machinery sector rose by 1.97%, ranking 18 among 30 CITIC first-class industries. Among the sub industries, machine tool equipment, oil and gas equipment and photovoltaic equipment led the increase, rising by 9.65%, 8.67% and 7.45% respectively.
High oil prices, oil and gas equipment fully benefited, and the fundamentals of the growth track continued to improve: in January, the 26 host manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics sold 15607 sets of various excavation machinery products, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%. Brent crude oil continued to rise, approaching us $100. High oil prices are conducive to oil companies to increase capital expenditure and investment, and the oil and gas equipment and oil service industry is expected to usher in a rebound in prosperity. In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles continued to grow rapidly. The new installed capacity of photovoltaic in 2022 is generally optimistic. After in-depth adjustment, new energy equipment and semiconductor equipment have high investment cost performance, and the oversold rebound market is brewing.
Investment suggestion: continue to focus on the mainstream track of scientific and technological growth. In the short term, the track of mainstream new energy equipment and semiconductor equipment has been fully adjusted and entered the range of high valuation and cost performance. It is suggested to actively participate in the opportunity of bottom reading and rebound of the growth track. In the medium and long term, new energy equipment (photovoltaic equipment, wind power equipment, lithium battery equipment) and semiconductor equipment are still the direction with the most definite growth and the largest growth space.
This year's economic growth is under great pressure. Policies have focused on stabilizing growth for many times. It is expected that various measures to stabilize growth will be continuously strengthened in the first half of the year. International oil prices continued to rise sharply, at a high level, which was good for the leaders of oil and gas equipment and other sectors.
Continue to emphasize the specialized and new small giant enterprises that pay attention to strategic emerging industries. It is suggested to focus on the machinery industry, focus on the upstream core parts, and make a breakthrough. The direction with large space for domestic import substitution mainly focuses on the targets, including domestic core parts, basic parts and key targets of domestic machine tools.
Risk tips: 1) the growth rate of manufacturing investment is lower than expected; 2) Export demand is lower than expected; 3) The demand of downstream industries is lower than expected; 4) The price of raw materials continues to rise; 5) Major changes have taken place in new energy and semiconductor policies.
