Investment summary:
Talk every Monday:
Fluorine chemical industry mainly includes four product systems: fluorine-containing refrigerants, fluorine-containing polymers, fluorine-containing fine chemicals and inorganic fluoride. With the continuous improvement of China's fluorine chemical technology, China's fluorine chemical industry has broken through the technical monopoly of most bulk, medium and low-end fluorine chemical products, and formed scale advantages and cost competitive advantages. According to the performance forecast released by some companies, the fluorine chemical industry will perform well in 2021.? The third generation fluorine-containing refrigerants are still the mainstream in the short and medium term. HFCS belong to the third generation refrigerants. With the increasing global demand for refrigerants and the accelerated withdrawal of the second generation refrigerants, HFCS will gradually become the mainstream products in the market in the next 5-10 years. As a major refrigerant producer, China is the country with the fastest growth of HFCS production capacity in the world. At present, the main production enterprises include Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) , Dongyue Group, Sanmei chemical, Sinochem Lantian group, sanaifu group, etc., and the market share of Cr5 is around 70%. After 2022, the capacity expansion of China's third-generation refrigerants is coming to an end, while the overseas third-generation refrigerants are further reduced. Driven by the improvement of export demand and the continuous increase of alternative demand, the supply and demand pattern of the refrigerant industry will continue to improve in the next few years
The new energy revolution has boosted the demand for fluoropolymers. PVDF (polyvinylidene fluoride) is the second largest product in the output of fluoroplastics, mainly used in coatings, injection molding, lithium batteries and photovoltaic fields. Among them, coatings and injection molding are their traditional application fields, while lithium batteries and photovoltaic are their emerging demand fields. The demand driven by lithium batteries accounted for about 20% in 2020 and increased to 40% in 2021. With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the overall demand for PVDF has been significantly driven. From the perspective of supply, affected by the environmental protection of fluorochemical industry and other issues, there is no clear time for the approval of environmental impact assessment, safety assessment and energy assessment of new production capacity, and the main raw material R142b is tight in supply due to the strict approval of new production capacity, the imbalance between supply and demand is expected to continue in the short term, and the business cycle of PVDF is expected to continue.
Investment strategy: supported by favorable factors such as better downstream demand and shortage of supply, the prices of main products such as fluorine-containing refrigerants and fluorine-containing polymers are expected to remain high, and the prosperity of fluorine chemical industry is expected to continue. In the future, we are still optimistic about Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) , Dongyue Group and other relevant leading enterprises with the advantages of industrial chain integration and scale.
Market review:
Sector performance: this week, CITIC's basic chemical sector rose 1.40%, and the composition of the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.28%. Compared with the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period, the basic chemical sector led by 1.12 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the basic chemical sub sector was dominated by growth this week, among which the sub sectors such as potassium fertilizer, carbon fiber, lithium chemicals, electronic chemicals, phosphorus fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industry were the top gainers; Spandex, soda ash, daily chemicals, printing and dyeing chemicals, civil explosives and other sub sectors led the decline.
Rise and fall of individual stocks: the basic chemical sector led the rise of individual stocks this week, including St Lok material, Hubei Forbon Technology Co.Ltd(300387) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Guofeng new material, Sanwei Holding Group Co.Ltd(603033) , etc; Stocks leading the decline include Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Goody Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002694) , Quakesafe Technologies Co.Ltd(300767) , etc.
Risk tips: the risk of fluctuations in international oil prices, the risk of repeated global epidemics, etc.
