Zhou’s views and investment suggestions
Hotels: intercontinental and Marriott recovered rapidly at home, and OCC rebounded rapidly, which led to the same increase of RevPAR, and successfully turned the loss in 21 years. Overall, in 2021, the average room price (ADR), occupancy rate (OCC) and single store revenue (RevPAR) of the head company of overseas hotels increased at the same time, which promoted the performance to be closer to the level before the epidemic, and the head company turned its losses smoothly. The strong rebound of OCC plays a leading role in the recovery of single store revenue (RevPAR). According to the financial reports of InterContinental Hotel and Marriott International in 2021, the company’s main business income in 21 years was $2.91 billion / + 21.4% and $13.86 billion / + 31.1% respectively. The recovery momentum in the United States was strong or the leisure demand was released due to loose epidemic control; The profit side turned losses, and the net profit was US $270 / 1.1 billion respectively, recovering to 69.1% / 86.3% in 19 years respectively. The global expansion of stores is progressing steadily, and the focus of expansion of stores is mostly outside the mainland. We believe that with the release of demand in the future, with the further repair of OCC and ADR and the steady implementation of global store expansion, it is just around the corner for the hotel industry to recover to the pre epidemic level.
Catering: Starbucks first recovered at home, and the consumption of offline stores in China is still under repair. According to the data such as delicious food, the number of catering stores and consumption in the store fell this week, the number of takeout catering stores improved month on month, and the takeout consumption has been higher than the level on the benchmark day. According to Starbucks’ quarterly report of 2022, the recovery speed of North American market is faster than that of Greater China. The company’s fy22q1 revenue is USD 8.05 billion / + 19.3%. Same store sales in North America increased by 18%. In the Chinese market, due to the strong epidemic prevention and control efforts and the participation of local brands in competition, the same store sales decreased by 14%. From the profit side, the net profit of 22q1 reached US $820 million / + 31.1%, an increase of 7.2% over 19q1. In the gradual improvement of profit, the company’s brand strength and toughness are prominent. Due to the rising cost of raw materials and labor, Starbucks raised the price of products in China on February 16, with an increase of 1-2 yuan.
Investment suggestion: if there is a significant recovery in future demand and the hotel is more flexible, it is suggested to pay attention to the industry leader Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Huazhu group, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ; Catering suggestions focus on the main brand single store model, jiumaojiu and Yum China, which are efficient and maintain a stable pace of expanding stores.
Data and announcement tracking
Market review: last week (2022 / 2 / 21 ~ 2022 / 2 / 25), the CSI 300 and hang seng index fell 1.7%, 5.8% and social services (Shenwan) fell 3.1% respectively. In breakdown, the catering A-share and Hong Kong stock indexes fell 3.7% and 6.9% respectively, and the Hotel A-share and Hong Kong stock indexes fell 5.3% and 9.2% respectively.
Industry news: 1) the national development and Reform Commission and other departments issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, and put forward relief and support policies and measures for the inclusive service industry, catering industry, retail industry, tourism and civil aviation industry. 2) Yang Guofu submitted the prospectus and rushed to the first share of Malatang. The prospectus shows that in q1-3 of 21 years, the company achieved revenue of 1.16 billion yuan / + 60.8%, gross profit rate of 30.2% / + 3.4pct, net profit of 200 million yuan / + 113.9%, and net profit rate of 17.4% / + 4.3pct. As of September 30, 2001, the company had 3 self operated stores + 5780 franchise stores. 3) Hi tea announced a comprehensive price reduction in the case of performance loss. At present, the price of a single cup of tea is no more than 29 yuan.
Announcement of key companies: jiumaojiu is expected to have a revenue of no less than 4.1 billion yuan / + 51% in 21 years, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is no less than 330 million yuan / + 165.9%.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation is repeated, the recovery of terminal demand is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified
