Industry core view:
Industry review: since the beginning of the year, the performance of the computer industry has been average. As of the closing on December 3, Shenwan computer industry has decreased by 0.89%, and the CSI 300 has decreased by 5.95% in the same period, leading the index by 5.06pct. The price earnings ratio (TTM) is 58.48 times, which is equivalent to the historical average since 2010. In the past two weeks, the fund attention has increased significantly, but the fund position level is still at a low allocation. The industry’s revenue grew steadily in the third quarter, but the profit is under short-term pressure. The performance of sub sectors such as information innovation, building informatization, artificial intelligence and cloud computing in the third quarter is good.
Industry Outlook: in the wave of technology upgrading, pay close attention to the deterministic demand under the policy dividend, and select high-quality tracks with strong performance certainty. Closely follow the policy guidelines of the 14th five year plan, accelerate the cloud, intelligence and digitization process of enterprises with “new infrastructure” as the core, and it is suggested to pay attention to the subdivided fields with high vision and performance support.
Key investment points:
In 2022, we expect that the computer industry will still perform a structural market, and we suggest paying attention to five boom tracks:
Industrial Internet: Industrial Internet is an important focus for promoting industrial transformation and upgrading and developing digital economy. The 14th five year plan takes the industrial Internet as a key industry of digital economy. At present, it has been applied in many industries and is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next five years.
Industrial software: industrial software is the only way for China to move from a “big manufacturing country” to a “powerful manufacturing country”. At present, the localization degree of China’s R & D and design industrial software is still low, and the core technology needs to catch up and break through. With the rapid development of production control industrial software, it is expected that the penetration rate will be fully improved under the general trend of intelligent manufacturing.
Xinchuang: the party and government Xinchuang started in 2020 has led to the rapid development of domestic basic software and hardware. Under the verification of large-scale shipment, Xinchuang products have been in the stage of transformation from available to easy to use. In the second half of 2021, with the industrial information innovation relay and the full spread of Party and government information innovation, it is expected that the related manufacturers of information innovation will still maintain the high-speed growth of performance.
Intelligent driving: the electric and intelligent penetration of the global automobile industry is accelerating, bringing a large number of software and algorithm requirements. Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Huawei and other industrial giants have accelerated the layout of the intelligent driving industry, which is expected to accelerate the development of the industry.
Network security: in 2021, network security legislation was intensively implemented, and the introduction of data security law and personal information protection law continued to boost the prosperity of the industry. In the era of big data, the importance of data security is becoming more and more prominent, and network information security just needs to be improved.
Investment suggestion: we suggest to focus on the industrial Internet and industrial software fields benefiting from the accelerated penetration of intelligent manufacturing, the information innovation and network security fields driven by the long-term demand for independent control and information security, and the intelligent driving field under the deterministic trend of intelligent networked vehicles. Recommend high-quality enterprises with good performance and strong industry competitiveness.
Risk factors: scattered outbreak risk; Technology advancement fails to meet expectations; Industry it capital expenditure is lower than expected; The implementation of the policy is less than expected; Global geopolitical risks.
