\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 111 Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) )
The long-term growth path is clear and the "buy" rating is maintained
Considering the continuous increase of the company's investment and the certain volatility of the credit creation business, we reduced the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to 1042, 1324 and 1699 million yuan (originally predicted to be 1137, 1408 and 1728 million yuan), corresponding to EPS of 226, 2.87 and 3.69 yuan / share respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 130.6, 102.8 and 80.1 times from 2021 to 2023, Considering the clear growth path and broad prospects of the company, maintain the "buy" rating.
Revenue growth was in line with expectations, and personal subscription business continued to grow at a high rate
The company released the performance express for 2021, which is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 3.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 45.07%; Q4 is expected to achieve revenue of 1.019 billion yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 34.4%, and the revenue growth rate is in line with expectations. From the perspective of revenue splitting, the personal subscription business continued its high growth trend, realizing an operating revenue of about 1.465 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 44%; Institutional subscription and service business realized an operating revenue of about 446 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 23%; Thanks to the continuous deepening of the process of information innovation, the operating revenue of institutional authorization business was about 962 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 107%; Internet advertising and other businesses realized an operating revenue of about 406 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3%.
Investment continued to increase, and the net interest rate remained at a high level
In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.042 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.68%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 841 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.47%. The profit growth rate was lower than the revenue growth rate, mainly because the company continued to increase R & D investment around the strategic focus, and the number of personnel also increased significantly, resulting in the increase of relevant expenses. However, the net interest rate of the company was 31.8%, which remained at a high level. In addition, as the company's non recurring profit and loss in 2020 includes the investment income of 85.884 million yuan brought by the acquisition of the equity of digital science and technology network in addition to the income from financial management and government subsidies, the non recurring profit and loss decreased in 2021.
The stickiness of user cloud collaboration continued to improve, and the contract liabilities increased by more than 70% year-on-year
Based on the company's continuous enrichment of products and services in the cloud and collaborative office scene, the cloud collaborative office stickiness of individual and enterprise users continues to improve. Due to the accelerated cloud process in personal subscription and institutional subscription business, the total contract liabilities of the company exceeded 1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 70%.
Risk warning: the company's business development is not as expected; The risk of intensified competition in the market.
