\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 887 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) )
In terms of categories, the epidemic has led to strong demand for white milk, which is expected to continue. Our research shows that the market growth rate of normal temperature white milk reached double digits in 2021, and the growth rate of Yili Jindian exceeded 20% in the first three quarters, while anmushi is expected to record a single digit growth rate in 2021, reflecting the rigid demand attribute of white milk under the epidemic. Considering the persistence of the current epidemic, we expect that consumers' demand for white milk will remain very strong in 2022.
From the perspective of price band, Yili's current product structure is vase shaped. From the perspective of price band, the overall product structure of Yili Normal temperature liquid milk can be divided into three parts. The first is the Yili mother brand at the bottom of the price band, whose product price is 10-14 yuan / kg; The second piece is the basic product of Jindian and amuxi, priced at 20-30 yuan / kg; The third piece is the high-end products of Jindian and amuxi, priced at more than 30 yuan / kg. Compared with the sales volume, among the three current 20 billion + single products of Yili, Yili's parent brand is located at the bottom of the price band, while Jindian and amuxi are located at the middle and high end of the price band, of which the high-end products of Jindian brand account for about 15-20%.
The price band of 10-20 yuan / kg and the increase of the proportion of products above 30 yuan / kg may be the direction of upgrading the structure of Yili Normal temperature liquid milk products in the future. Careful observation shows that Yili's parent brand mainly focuses on the price band of 10-12 yuan / kg, while Jindian's starting price is 20 yuan / kg, and there is a price vacuum range of nearly 10 yuan between them. Zhennong milk (14 yuan / kg) launched by Yili in recent years has well filled this price gap and attracted some consumers to upgrade their products by improving the taste of the products, with rapid growth. On the other hand, Yili also continues to expand its products with a price band of more than 30 yuan / kg. In Jindian, Yili continues to launch characteristic milk such as Juan Shan and organic A2 by screening cows and feeding conditions in the upstream, so as to increase the proportion of medium and high-end products in Jindian; In amuxi, Yili has achieved an increase in the average price through continuous innovation in taste and packaging. As the sales of these two price bands are relatively weak and there is potential room for product structure upgrading, investors are advised to pay attention to the products and sales of these two price bands, especially the growth of white milk.
Profit forecast and investment rating: under the epidemic, the demand for white milk continues to be strong. The company presses the warehouse with liquid milk business, takes the improvement of gross sales difference and the growth of milk powder business as the medium and short-term focus, and looks forward to a clear and unexpected possibility. We expect that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.45/1.74/2.08 yuan, giving 31xpe in 2022 with a target price of 54 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
