Event overview:
The central bank released financial and social finance data for November: RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 160.5 billion yuan; The growth rate of M2 was 8.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points and a month on month decrease of 0.2 percentage points; M1 grew by 3%, a year-on-year decrease of 7 percentage points and a month on month increase of 0.2 percentage points. In November, the social financing increment was 2.61 trillion yuan, and the social financing stock at the end of the month was 311.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%.
Analysis and judgment:
In November, the credit was basically stable under the guidance of policies, and the enterprise side was still not strong. In November, RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan, which rebounded compared with October, still decreased by 160.5 billion yuan year-on-year, and the balance growth rate was 11.7%. It was 0.2pct lower than last month and 1.1pct lower than the same period last year, mainly due to the drag of enterprise loans: 1) resident Loans: 733.7 billion yuan was increased in November, a slight increase of 20 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, Among them, the performance of short-term loans was weaker than that of the same period last year (an increase of 151.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 96.9 billion yuan); benefiting from the release of mortgage loans under the loose policy, the medium and long-term loans of residents increased by 582.1 billion yuan, an increase of 77.2 billion yuan over the seasonal year-on-year increase. 2) enterprise loans: 567.9 billion yuan was added in November, a year-on-year decrease of 213.3 billion yuan, enterprise short-term loans and medium and long-term loans increased by 32.4 billion yuan and 247 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, and the bills still increased by 160.5 billion yuan, but the base recovered The year-on-year growth rate converged significantly. In November, the credit data basically achieved stable delivery under the strengthening of real estate and other policies, but the demand reflected by the enterprise side is still not strong. The recent monetary policy operations of carbon emission reduction support tools, green refinancing, RRR reduction and refinancing interest rate reduction are expected to stabilize expectations, underpin the economy, boost the financing willingness of enterprises and support the credit volume at the beginning of next year.
The growth rate of social finance hit the bottom and rebounded slightly. Corporate bonds and government bonds are the main contributions under the low base
In November, 2.61 trillion yuan of social finance was added, an increase of 478.6 billion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of balance rose slightly from 0.1pct to 10.1% month on month after leveling in October. The inflection point of social finance began to appear, mainly contributed by corporate bonds and government bonds: 1) in November, the net increase of government bonds was 815.8 billion yuan, which was the second high month of this year, with an increase of more than 400 billion yuan year-on-year under low base, and the implementation of special bonds accelerated at the end of the year; The monthly issuance of corporate bonds also increased significantly, with an increase of 410.4 billion yuan. However, the Yongmei incident in the same period of last year blocked the issuance of corporate bonds at the end of the year, with an increase of 326.4 billion yuan year-on-year under the low base. 2) As the transition period of the new regulations on asset management approaches the end, the reduction of off balance sheet non-standard financing is increased (the overall reduction of entrusted loans + trust loans + undiscounted acceptance bills is 253.8 billion yuan, an increase of about 50 billion yuan year-on-year). 3) credit is the main drag on Social Finance this month, and the scale of RMB loans invested in entities is about 230 billion yuan less than the same period.
The issuance of special bonds has ended. Looking forward to next year, with continuous and stable policies, the amount of special bonds has certain support to hedge the downward pressure on the economy. At the same time, it is expected to boost the demand for supporting financing, and social finance will continue to remain stable.
M2 growth rate dropped, and m1m2 scissors difference narrowed
In November, the growth rate of M2 was 8.5%, down 2.2pct and 0.2pct respectively on a month on month basis. The growth rate of broad money slowed slightly. At the same time, the growth rate of M1 was 3%, down 7pct on a year-on-year basis, rebounded 0.2pct on a month on month basis, and m1m2 rose and fell. The scissors gap converged for the first time since April this year. Under the support of recent policies, the capital environment of enterprises has improved slightly.
In November, deposits increased by 1.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 961.2 billion yuan. Under the supervision and guidance of the acceleration of fiscal expenditure, fiscal deposits increased significantly by 542.4 billion yuan year-on-year, while resident and enterprise deposits increased by nearly 100 billion yuan year-on-year, and non bank deposits increased by 877.3 billion yuan year-on-year, forming a gap.
Investment suggestions:
In November, the credit was steadily released under the support of the policy, and it is expected to continue to stabilize with the support of the policy, but the weak demand in the structure shows the pull of the follow-up observation policy; Benefiting from the low base of corporate bonds and the centralized issuance of government bonds, the growth rate of social finance stabilized and rebounded. Recently, a number of policies to stabilize the bottom of the economy have been implemented, including reducing the reserve requirement by 0.5pct, releasing 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds, and reducing the refinancing interest rate to hedge the downward pressure on the economy, which is expected to boost real demand.
With the implementation and support of the recent economic growth policy, the market pessimism has been repaired and the valuation of the sector has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of follow-up policies, pay attention to the investment opportunities of individual stocks, and continue to recommend: China Merchants, Ping An, industrial, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Changsha, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) .
Risk statement
1. The downward pressure on the economy continued to increase, and the credit cost increased significantly;
2. Business differentiation of small and medium-sized banks, major business risks of individual banks, etc.
