1. Personal protection: 2021m11 double 11 gave birth to consumer demand, increased month on month growth, and the industry has an obvious trend of high-end. By category, although the sales of Alibaba e-commerce in 2021m11 four major categories of care decreased to varying degrees year-on-year, due to the boost of double 11 to consumption, each category showed a higher growth rate month on month, with paper towels, sanitary napkins, adult incontinence care and baby diapers + 187.1%, + 260.9%, + 123.0% and + 168.9% month on month respectively. In terms of paper towels, the sales of 2021m11 paper towels / wet towels decreased by 13.9% year-on-year, and 2021m1-m11 decreased by 16.1% year-on-year. In terms of subdivided categories, high-end categories grew rapidly and the proportion of sales increased year-on-year. In terms of brands, 2021m11 Vida’s sales picked up and jierou’s growth was steady, with their sales proportion increasing year-on-year. In terms of sanitary napkins, the industry concentration continued to improve. By category, 2021m11 pant sanitary napkins grew rapidly. In terms of brands, libresse, Gauss and le’erya grew rapidly, and the sales of 2021m11 increased by 43% / 37% / 29% year-on-year. In terms of adult diaper care, the market performance of 2021m11 is weak, and the sales growth of major brands is negative year-on-year, but the market share of head brands continues to increase. In terms of baby diapers, curiosity grew rapidly, BabyCare continued to grow positively, and the high-end trend of the industry was obvious.
2. Software: the sales of 2021m11 increased significantly year-on-year driven by the promotion of the Eleventh National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The sales of 2021m11 software category increased by 17.7% year-on-year, and the sales of 2021m1-m11 increased by 9.6% year-on-year. In terms of sofas, the sales volume of 2021m11 was – 17.9% year-on-year, and that of 2021m1-m11 was – 2.7% year-on-year. In terms of brands, Gu’s growth rate is beautiful, and the sales of 2021m11 is + 54.6% year-on-year. In terms of mattresses, 2021m11 sales increased by 62.9% year-on-year, and 2021m1-m11 sales increased by 40.9% year-on-year. By brand, the proportion of Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) sales increased significantly, and the growth rate of Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) was stable. The sales of 2021m11 Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) and Yalan increased by 64.3% and 29.2% respectively year-on-year.
3. Stationery & Trendy play: the sales volume of the stationery sector decreased year-on-year, but the sales volume increased month on month driven by the double 11; Tide play is greatly improved month on month driven by double 11, and bubble Mart continues its beautiful performance. In terms of stationery, the overall sales of stationery in 2021m11 decreased by 37.4% year-on-year and increased by 78.9% month on month. By brand, the sales volume of Deli in 2021m11 was – 27.9% year-on-year and + 44.6% month on month; The sales volume of Chenguang 2021m11 was – 38.6% year-on-year and + 70.8% month on month; 2021m11cr2 was 15.0%, year-on-year + 1.1pp, and the market share of high-end brands increased year-on-year. In terms of tide play, the sales of 2021m11 tide play fell year-on-year. The sales of 2021m11 were – 13.6% year-on-year and + 113.8% month on month. The head IP of bubble mart 2021m11, such as spacemolly series, performed beautifully, with sales of + 15.6% year-on-year and + 85.5% month on month. The sales accounted for 13.1%, year-on-year + 3.3pp, and the sales of 2021m1-m11 accounted for 7.9%; The sales of Wandai 2021m11 decreased year-on-year, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.1% and a month on month increase of 161.6%, accounting for 9.7%, year-on-year -0.3pp, and the sales of 2021m1-m11 accounted for 9.7%.
Investment suggestions: recommendations for the furniture sector 1) undervalued leaders [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ], [Minhua holdings], [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] that are continuously differentiated from the industry; 2) Basically good for [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] with low valuation, it is recommended to pay attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] and [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ]; 3) It is suggested to pay attention to [ Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp(300729) ], [ Henglin Home Furnishings Co.Ltd(603661) ] and [ Ue Furniture Co.Ltd(603600) ]. The short-term performance of student stationery is weak due to the impact of the loss of confidence in picking up goods through terminal channels under the double reduction policy. It is expected that it will be repaired in 2021q4. It is recommended to recommend industry leaders with stable operation and more callback [ Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) ].
Risk tip: exchange rate and raw material price fluctuate greatly; The completion and sales of the real estate do not meet the expectations; The sales channel structure fails to form an adaptive transformation; Macroeconomic recovery did not meet expectations; Accuracy of data statistics.
