\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 027 Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) )
Key investment points
Event: the company issued a fixed increase and equity incentive announcement: 1) it plans to raise 500800 million yuan from Wu Chaoqun, the actual controller and chairman of the company, at an issue price of 15.59 yuan / share; 2) It is proposed to grant 4.59 million restricted shares to 73 people including directors, senior managers and middle managers at the price of 9.79 yuan / share, accounting for 0.575% of the total share capital of the company.
Constant growth will help expand production capacity and continue to promote nationalization. After deducting the issuance expenses, all the funds of this raised investment will be used for the “intelligent manufacturing project of seasoning with an annual output of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons”. The chairman fully subscribed for this fixed increase, which shows that the controlling shareholders have sufficient confidence in the long-term development of the company. The construction period of the project is five years and will be constructed in two phases: the first phase will complete the annual production capacity of 200000 tons of soy sauce and 100000 tons of cooking wine; The second phase will have an annual capacity of 300000 tons of soy sauce, which is expected to be completed in December 2024. At that time, the annual capacity of soy sauce / cooking wine / vinegar will reach 82.0/18.3150000 tons respectively. The company increased its efforts to expand production. On the one hand, it alleviated the current capacity shortage and provided capacity guarantee for the national expansion of the company; On the other hand, the expansion of production in the industry is frequent, and the landing of new production capacity will help the company consolidate its market position and further improve its market share.
Motivate and bind core employees to demonstrate confidence in future development. The objectives of this incentive for the three sales restriction lifting periods are as follows: Taking the operating income of 21 years as the base, the revenue growth rate of 22 / 23 / 24 years shall not be less than 18% / 38% / 60% respectively; Or taking the net profit of 21 years as the base, the growth rate of net profit (deduction) in 22, 23 and 24 years shall not be less than 50% / 90% / 130% respectively. It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company corresponding to the unlocking target in 22-24 years shall not be less than 18% / 17% / 16% respectively; The growth rate of net profit shall not be less than 50% / 27% / 21% respectively. The unlocking target set this time is relatively high, and the growth rate of net profit far exceeds the growth rate of revenue, which fully demonstrates the company’s confidence in the high growth of future performance. It will boost the development of the company’s core interests and boost the morale of employees.
The recovery trend of the industry is gradually showing, and the performance is expected to improve steadily. At the industry level, with the gradual weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the gradual recovery of catering demand, the return of community channels to rationality, and the smooth increase of industrial prices, the condiment industry will recover significantly in 2022. Under the 21-year low base effect, the overall profitability of the industry is expected to rise, and the leading enterprises will still fully enjoy the dividend of concentration improvement. From the perspective of the company: 1) zero addition soy sauce, as the core category of the company for many years, still has great dividends in the wave of consumption upgrading and health, and the company 21h2 continues to launch salt reduced soy sauce, low price zero addition and other products, and the product matrix continues to be enriched; 2) The company has strengthened the expansion of distribution channels, gradually promoted to central and North China based on Southwest and East China, and continued to increase the construction of e-commerce channels. The process of nationalization is steadily advancing. With the implementation of equity incentive and the continuous production capacity, the company’s long-term performance is obviously improving
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is expected that the “holding” and “holding” of PE will be 26.50 times and 39.50 times respectively in 2020 and 2023, with the corresponding dynamic ratings of “holding” and “holding” respectively.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp fluctuations in the price of raw materials and the risk that the national development is less than expected.
