\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 233 Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) )
The net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years is expected to be 1.836 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.04%
The company released the performance express for 21 years. The annual revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.713/1.836 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.46% / 3.04%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 1.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.66%; Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 2.471 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 524 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%. The profit level of cement products of the company declined slightly year-on-year in the past 21 years, but the sales volume increased slightly, superimposed with the year-on-year increase of securities investment and financial management income, resulting in the growth of overall profit.
Cement sales increased slightly and the gross profit margin decreased
The cement output of the company in 21 years was 199737 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.31%, and the cement sales volume was 197889 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.96%. The cement price in the eastern Guangdong regional market continued to operate at a low level since the beginning of the year, rose and fell in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the supply was tightened under the dual control of energy consumption and power restriction. The cement price began to rise rapidly since early September. In the fourth quarter, the sharp rise in the price of building materials combined with the rapid cooling of the real estate market, the real estate investment continued to slow down, the progress of project construction was slow, and the demand for cement shrank, Superimposed on the rise and fall of coal prices, cement prices have peaked and declined since mid October. In 21 years, the average price per ton of cement of the company increased by 8.03% year-on-year to 367 yuan / ton. Affected by the rise of coal price, the cost per ton increased by 12.68% year-on-year to 228 yuan / ton, and finally realized a gross profit per ton of 139 yuan, a slight increase of 2 yuan / ton year-on-year. In the 21st year, the company's overall gross profit margin is expected to be 37.2%, down 2.44 PCT year-on-year, and the net profit margin attributable to the parent company is 23.8%, down 1.5 PCT year-on-year, with a decline in profitability.
The demand of Guangdong is still resilient in 22 years, and the company's gross profit per ton is expected to pick up
The company's sales area is mainly concentrated in Guangdong. We expect that the cement demand in Guangdong will remain resilient in 2022. In terms of real estate, the newly started area of real estate in Guangdong will decline by 12.6% year-on-year in 21 years. It is expected that the cement demand at the real estate end may decline in 22 years, but the infrastructure is expected to fill the demand gap. According to the Guangdong Development and Reform Commission, 1570 provincial key projects will be arranged in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, The total investment was 7670 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and the annual planned investment was 900 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. On the supply side, no new capacity is expected in Guangdong in 2022, but there is still capacity investment in Guangxi. The inflow of cement from other provinces may have a certain impact on the supply pattern of Guangdong. In terms of price, benefiting from the supply contraction caused by the tightening of peak shifting production, the price center is still expected to move up in 22 years. From the cost side, the current q5500 power coal price reached 940 yuan / ton, up 61% year-on-year. However, on February 24, the national development and Reform Commission requested to further improve the coal market price formation mechanism. In the future, the coal price is expected to decline steadily, and the cost side pressure in 22 years may be less than that in 21 years. On the whole, we expect the company's gross profit per ton in 22 years to pick up.
The dividend yield highlights the investment value and maintains the "overweight" rating
The dividend rate of the company in recent three years is 50% - 60%, which is at a higher level than that of similar companies, and the investment value is prominent. As the price of 21q4 cement fell sharply, referring to the performance express and taking into account the subsequent price center or slow rise, we adjusted the net profit forecast for 21-23 years to RMB 1.84/20.9/2.26 billion (the previous value was RMB 2.70/31.5/3.46 billion). Referring to comparable companies, the company was approved to give the company 7 times PE in 22 years and the target price was RMB 12.25 to maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the demand for cement is less than expected, the price rise in peak season is less than expected, and the coal cost rises. The performance express is the preliminary calculation result, and the specific financial data shall be subject to the annual report disclosed by the company.
