\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 191 Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) )
Key investment points
Traditional business: cigarette label re won the bid for key customers, 22-year repair period, and color box grew steadily. Main business of cigarette label: in 21 years, the company's cigarette label business decreased by 4.07% year-on-year to 2.3 billion, mainly due to: (1) the company's business in some regions such as Yunnan and Hubei markets is in the recovery period, and the release of orders to the revenue side is mainly reflected in 22 years; (2) The price reduction of some old products has reduced the cigarette label revenue and gross profit margin to a certain extent, and the actual sales decline is slightly better than the revenue. Looking forward to the next 22 years, driven by the restorative growth of key customers + new bid winning business, it is expected that the company's main business of cigarette labels will have a strong momentum of repair. At the same time, it is expected to expand more high-quality cigarette label business and provide high added value, and the profit margin is expected to be stable and upward.
Color box business: in the past 21 years, the company continued to make efforts in the field of color boxes, and its revenue increased by 23.5% year-on-year to 1.136 billion. In terms of segmentation, we estimate that high-quality cigarette boxes will account for about 55% in 21 years, and continue to dig into the share of Chinese tobacco customers, which is expected to increase by 10-20%; Consumer electronics packaging in the 21st year, British American tobacco is expected to contribute more to the e-cigarette packaging, but China Yueke's customer contribution is reduced. The company cuts into the mobile phone box and is expected to increase by 20 +%; With the company's increased cooperation with Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Yanghe, Xijiu, Fenjiu and other customers, the company is expected to make the largest incremental contribution. Looking forward to the next 22 years, the company will gradually increase the market share of packaging in medium and high-end tobacco and alcohol, consumer electronics and other subdivided fields, and its revenue is expected to continue to grow at a high rate.
New type of tobacco: deepen the layout, build a comprehensive solution service provider, and increase the revenue
In 21 years, the company's new-type tobacco business increased by 381.16% year-on-year to about 200 million yuan. The company carried out new-type tobacco business in an orderly manner and completed yunshuo technology, Changyi technology and Jiaju electronics. The territory of new-type tobacco continued to expand from cigarette sets to consumables. In the 18-20 years, the company's new tobacco layout focused on cigarette sets, including Jinjia Technology (main customers suorin and gippro, atomized electronic cigarette OEM, with a business of nearly 200 million in 21 years), Jiayu Technology (Yunyan joint venture, HNB cigarette OEM), YINWEI Technology (Xiaomi joint venture, foogo independent brand). In the 21 year, the company gradually began to lay out supplies. In June, the Indonesian subsidiary was set up to plan HNB raw materials. In November, Xiang Yun technology invested 10 million 590 thousand yuan in the layout of the atomized electronic cigarette flavor. In January, 22 months later, the company increased its capital, Changyi technology, perfected the layout of HNB flavors and fragrances, and participated in the electronic distribution of low temperature herbal smoke bombs. Looking forward to 22 years, the company's forward-looking and perfect layout will drive the new tobacco business to a higher level.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect to achieve revenue of 5.085/63.647928 billion respectively in the 21st-23rd year, with an increase of 21.32% / 25.16% / 24.57%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.006/12.33/1.508 billion, an increase of 22.12% / 22.56% / 22.32% at the same time. The current share price corresponds to PE of 24.69x/20.14x/16.47x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the development of new tobacco business is lower than expected, and the growth of color box is lower than expected
