\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 208 Autel Intelligent Technology Corp.Ltd(688208) )
Event: on the evening of February 25, 2022, the company released the performance express for 2021. In 2021, the company realized revenue of RMB 2.254 billion, yoy + 42.84%, net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 440 million, yoy + 1.69%, net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 384 million after deduction, yoy-3.92%.
The six factors disturb the short-term apparent performance, and strengthen the industrial trend of intelligent and motorized R & D investment. The company's apparent profit data in 2021 is affected by several factors. The first is the exchange rate. At the end of 2021, the exchange rate of US dollar against RMB is about 6.37, while at the end of 2019 and 2020, the data are 6.98 and 6.46 respectively. The continuous appreciation of RMB will have a certain impact on the company, which accounts for nearly 90% of its overseas revenue; The second is the price rise of raw materials. The continuous disturbance of the global raw material supply chain in 2021 has a certain negative impact on the company's raw material cost. Due to the high degree of productization, high pricing ability and relatively sufficient inventory, the impact of this factor is expected to be gradually alleviated in the future; The third is the freight cost. The sharp rise in the global shipping market in 2021 also brought significant disturbance to the company (the company's factories are mainly in the mainland and Vietnam), and this impact is gradually reflected in the financial statements (the comprehensive gross profit margin in the first three quarters gradually declined); The fourth is the cost of equity incentive. The company issued equity incentive in Q3 in 2020 and reserved grant in Q1 in 2021q1, resulting in a significant year-on-year increase in the annual cost of equity incentive in 2021 (we estimate that the added value of incentive cost is 50-60 million yuan); The fifth is R & D expenses. The R & D expense rate of the company in the first three quarters was 20.76%, with a year-on-year increase of about 4 PCTs. The R & D expense rate of the whole year is no less than Q3 data. Even if four PCTs are used as an estimate, the R & D expense increment corresponds to about 90 million yuan; The sixth is the provision of expected litigation. The company has made a detailed analysis of several potential litigation related events in the convertible bond announcement, and it is estimated that the corresponding litigation impact of provision in 2021 will be about 10-20 million yuan. The above six factors have caused obvious short-term disturbance to the apparent profit data in 2021. The current sustained and strong R & D investment will lay a solid foundation for the industrial trend of intelligent and electric card position in the future.
Filling the gap in the maintenance market of new energy vehicles will help to seize the opportunity of structural reform in the future automobile market. At present, the automobile market presents structural adjustment, and the proportion of new energy vehicles continues to increase. However, at present, the main automobile maintenance service institutions mainly focus on the service system of traditional fuel vehicles. The maintenance work of new energy vehicles focuses on the 4S stores of the original automobile factory. There is still a huge gap on the supply side of the battery maintenance and diagnosis market of new energy vehicles. The company's investment in new energy vehicle maintenance projects will fill this gap and help the company seize the market opportunity.
Comply with the upgrading requirements of comprehensive diagnostic products and lay a solid foundation for the optimization of algorithm and coverage of the next generation of intelligent maintenance products. At present, the Automotive comprehensive diagnosis products are still insufficient to cover all models in the current automotive market, and there is a demand for the software and hardware upgrading of the comprehensive diagnosis products. The company's increased investment in the next generation of comprehensive diagnosis products will further improve the technical performance and intelligence of the products, meet the demand of the automobile maintenance market for providing accurate fault location in the process of vehicle maintenance, and help the company further improve the performance of intelligent comprehensive diagnosis products.
Maintain the "buy" rating. It is predicted that from 2021 to 2023, the company will achieve operating revenue of 2.252 billion yuan, 3.087 billion yuan and 4.131 billion yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company of 442 million yuan, 556 million yuan and 743 million yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of deterioration of international trade environment; Risks of backward technology research and development and investment not meeting expectations; Risk of raw material supply; Risks of intellectual property disputes; There is a risk of errors in key assumptions.
