\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 005 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) )
Key investment points
Event: the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Gem Co.Ltd(002340) and rongbai participated in 18% of the power regeneration held by Gem Co.Ltd(002340) to ensure the supply of 28% of its materials and products and lay out the field of battery recycling; Acquire 8% equity of qingmeibang and lock in upstream nickel resources; And the precursor purchased from Gem Co.Ltd(002340) from 2022 to 2026 shall not be less than 300000 tons.
Rongbai's "new integration" strategy was further promoted, upstream and downstream strategic cooperation was opened, and cost advantages were consolidated. The company and Gem Co.Ltd(002340) signed a strategic cooperation agreement to jointly build a strategic cooperation system based on the industrial chain of "nickel and cobalt resource exploitation - power battery recovery - ternary precursor manufacturing - ternary material manufacturing", and establish long-term close cooperation in the fields of power battery recovery, overseas nickel resource smelting, precursor product supply and marketing, etc. the company plans to participate in 18% equity of power regeneration, Bind 26% of the output materials, cut into the power battery recycling market, lock in more than 8% of qingmeibang's nickel resources by means of equity participation, focus on the main business of high nickel cathode, and improve the integrated layout of the company; Previously, the company locked Huayou 180000 tons of low-cost nickel resources, corresponding precursors + other conventional nickel, cobalt raw materials and manganese raw materials with competitive advantages. After this cooperation, it is expected to cover 30-40% of the company's raw material demand in the future, and the cost advantage brought by the new integration strategy will be further reflected; In the long run, we expect that the company will continue to apply for its own industrial layout through equity participation and strategic cooperation, build a product system with technology and cost competitiveness, further increase the proportion of self supply of the company's precursors, and stabilize the leading position of the company.
The upgrading of battery technology is accelerated, and the general trend of high nickel ternary, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) leads the industry to accelerate penetration. The performance of high nickel batteries has been greatly improved and there is much room for cost reduction. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) high nickel technology industry is leading. We expect that the output of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) high nickel batteries will exceed 40gwh in 2021, accounting for nearly 30%, accounting for more than 50% in Sanyuanli. It is mainly supported by overseas car enterprises, new forces and other high-end models. We predict that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will produce 300gwh + in 2022, including nearly 100GWh of high nickel battery, which corresponds to 170000 tons of high nickel cathode demand + (considering partial loss). From the perspective of the whole industry, with the large-scale production of pure electric platform models and 4680 large cylindrical batteries by overseas vehicle enterprises in 2022, we expect the share of high nickel to further increase, and H2 will accelerate significantly in 2022.
Orders + production capacity accelerated, the profitability remained high, and the growth certainty was strong. We expect that the company's shipment in 2022 is expected to reach 150000 tons, with a growth rate of + 170%. Among them, the company has won a large order of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 100000 tons in 2022 and signed an order of 30000 tons + in 2022 with Funeng, which provides a strong guarantee for the company's shipment. In the long run, the company is deeply bound to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , locking the main supplier position. We expect the shipment market share to reach 30%, and the company's leading position is stable. In terms of profitability, we expect that the net profit per ton can be maintained at 13 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 00 / ton in 2022, maintaining a reasonable range. At the same time, the company's production capacity is accelerated. It is expected that the production capacity will exceed 250000 tons by the end of 2022, ranking first in the world. The growth space of the company is clear, and the leading position of high nickel is stable.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we estimate that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 9.17/20.13/2.886 billion yuan, an increase of 330% / 120% / 43% at the same time, corresponding to pe71 / 32 / 23x, 45xpe will be given in 2022, the target price will be 202 yuan, and the "buy" rating will be maintained.
Risk tip: the policy and electric vehicle sales are not as expected
