It is suggested to pay attention to the weakening trend of the two-way impact of the Xinjiang cotton incident on Chinese and foreign brands
Key recommended targets this week:
1. Sports shoes and clothing retailer leader: taobo;
2. Sports and leisure leaders: Anta sports, Li Ning, Bosideng, Hla Group Corp.Ltd(600398) , Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) , Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) ;
3. OEM leading inflection point combination: Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Shenzhou International, Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) ;
4. Subject of epidemic prevention: Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) .
The online data of international sports brands are improved, and taobo with mature store and check-out mode continues to be recommended
From the data of online Ali sports shoes and clothing in November, Nike’s growth rate in November was – 10.5%, which was narrowed to the lowest level compared with – 36%, – 33%, – 20%, – 28%, – 30%, – 41%, – 34% from April to October; The growth rate of Adidas in November was lower than the average growth rate of – 40.45% from April to October 8pct. From the data of week 2021w49, Nike2 RMB 0.4 billion (+ 3.90%), the weekly growth rate became positive for the first time since the Xinjiang cotton incident; Adidas was RMB 98 million (- 19.36%), which is significantly narrower than the average decline since April. Taobo: as the largest retailer of Nike and Adidas in China, on the one hand, it is firm in the brand strategy of big stores, and the operating efficiency of big stores is significantly better than that of peers, which is conducive to improving profitability and is expected to seize the market share of competitors who are not active in opening big stores; on the other hand, the business model of leaving stores is mature, which is conducive to Under the repeated epidemic, the output of a single store is thickened. It has about 4000 stores, enterprise wechat and nearly 10000 wechat groups (a total of 7775 stores as of August 2021). It operates private traffic through various forms such as new product launch reminders / product recommendations / lucky draw activities, and the proportion of out of store sales in the revenue of a single store can reach 10-20%.
We look forward to the sustained and high growth of the double 12 catalytic online, and continue to recommend Anta sports and Li Ning, the leaders of sports clothing
From the data of online Ali sports shoes + clothing in November, the growth rates of Anta / FILA / Li Ning / Tebu in November were + 38.96% / + 46.64% / + 33.07% / + 6.41% respectively. From the data of 2021w49 week, 2021.11 29-2021.12. The sales of various sports brands were: Li Ning 137 million yuan (+ 32.80%), Anta 82 million yuan (- 0.49%), FILA 78 million yuan (+ 17.52%), and Tebu 36 million yuan (+ 2.53%) Brand high arcade Fashion Co branded series, continue to lead the trend of sports fashion.
Continue to recommend OEM leaders with low valuation and accelerated capacity release in 2022
Lululemon released the results of fy2021q3 (August 1-October 31, 2021) on December 9. The performance again exceeded expectations and the annual forecast was optimistic. (1) revenue maintained a growth trend: revenue was $1.5 billion (+ 28%), exceeding fy2021q3 expectations, including DTC revenue of $590 million (+ 23%). (2) profitability improved steadily: gross profit of $830 million (+ 32%) and gross profit margin of 57.2% (+ 1.1pct), the adjusted operating profit margin is 19.4% (+ 0.3pct), and the net interest rate is 12.9% (+ 0.1pct). (3) fy2021q3 has a net 18 Direct stores, totaling 552 stores. (4) the annual forecast is raised, and the company expects an annual revenue of us $6.25-6.29 billion (it is expected to increase by 0.5% – 1% at the same time), and the annual performance is expected to be USD 997-1006 million, an increase of about 4%. Shenzhou International: lululemon is the company’s new customer. It starts to produce its orders at the end of September and is expected to supply fabrics in December; on December 7, 2021, the company plans to acquire 17.28% equity of Anhui Huamao Group through its subsidiary Ningbo Ruiding for RMB 480 million, and will hold a total of 21.05% equity in the future Mao holds 46.40% equity of Anhui Huamao Textile Company Limited(000850) (000850. SZ). This strategic acquisition is conducive to maintaining the stability of the supply chain and expanding the woven category in the future.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation outside China repeatedly affects terminal sales, and the spread of overseas epidemic situation affects the brand supply chain.
