\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 191 Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) )
Event: the company released the performance express of 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 5.085 billion yuan during the reporting period, a year-on-year increase of + 21.32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.006 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 808 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.71%.
Comments:
We successfully completed the performance assessment objectives of equity incentive, and the performance of the whole year was in line with expectations. The business performance of the company’s large packaging sectors such as high-quality cigarette boxes and wine boxes was stable, and the business sectors such as new tobacco and new materials grew at a high speed, which promoted the company to successfully complete the performance evaluation goal of equity incentive, and the overall business performance met the expectations. In terms of single quarter, the company’s Q4 single quarter revenue was 1.435 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.52%; The net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 189 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.79%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 97 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 29.96%. We believe that the reason for the decline in the growth rate of non parent net profit deducted in Q4 single quarter is that the current new tobacco business with low gross profit margin has grown rapidly, which has reduced the company’s profit level to a certain extent. In the future, as the scale effect of the new tobacco business gradually appears and the company continues to pay attention to cost reduction and efficiency increase, the company’s profitability is expected to gradually recover.
The first mover advantage of the new tobacco track is obvious, and the long-term growth momentum of the company is full. In terms of business, the company’s traditional cigarette label business revenue was – 4.07% year-on-year. On the one hand, the price of some products and the business in some regional markets were in the recovery period. On the other hand, the revenue of high-quality cigarette boxes was classified as color box business. The total revenue of the company’s traditional cigarette labels and high-quality cigarette boxes continued to grow steadily over the same period. The development of new customers of color box business was smooth, driving the revenue of color box products to + 23.52% year-on-year. The company also has a new tobacco racetrack with full location, atomization layout, foundry (Jin Jia Technology) / tobacco and flavor spices (yunshuo Technology) / electronic cigarette brand (FOOGO) / electronic cigarette trade and overseas channels (hang Tian commerce); HNB business layout cigarette smoking, bomb + brand operation + overseas channel + particle smoke bomb self filling equipment (Jia Ju Electronics) /HNB essence + cooling section (Changyi Technology) / overseas channel platform (Heng Tian business) / Yunyan strategic cooperation OEM (Jia Yu Technology). The layout of new-type tobacco business has obvious first mover advantages, and the revenue continues to grow beautifully. The annual new-type tobacco revenue increased by + 381.16% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: the traditional packaging business is developing steadily, and the new tobacco business provides sufficient momentum. The company’s cigarette label business has recovered steadily, the color box and new material business has grown steadily, and the new tobacco business has a wide layout and continues to increase. In the future, with the gradual implementation of China’s new tobacco national standard and supervision, the profit elasticity is expected to accelerate the release. We maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be RMB 1.25/1.55 billion respectively, corresponding to the current market value PE of 20 / 16x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the development of new business is less than expected.
