Weekly observation: when the pig cycle is "warm at first and cold at last"
In November 2021, according to the data of the national development and Reform Commission, the national average sales price of pigs was 17.88 yuan / kg, an increase of 24.84% month on month. By the end of November, the average selling price of live pigs was 18.67 yuan / kg, the average selling price of pig feed was 3.30 yuan / kg, the specific price of pig feed was 5.66, the specific price balance point of pig feed was 4.89, the corresponding industry unit breeding cost (full cost, average weight 110kg / head) was 16.27 yuan / kg, and the average profit per head was 265 yuan / head.
The pig price is "warm at first, but cold at first", and the disturbance factors of the capacity removal trend are weakening. According to the agricultural and rural data, the number of fertile sows in the industry decreased by 2.5% month on month in October. It is expected that the number of fertile sows in the monitoring samples of the Ministry of agriculture will still maintain a wide decline range in November, which is expected to be 1.0-1.5%. The stock index of fertile sows of the Ministry of agriculture is expected to fall to 88.3-87.9, equivalent to 91.5% - 91.9% at the end of 2017. Based on the obvious mismatch between supply and demand in 2022h1 industry, we believe that the pig price is expected to fall below the industry cost line again in January 2022, the industry will fall into a loss again, and the disadvantageous capacity will show obvious signs of acceleration in this stage. We believe that from June to July 2022, the industry's production capacity is expected to be more than 15% higher than the high level from May to June 2021, supporting the emergence of a new round of pig cycle price reversal.
Zhou's view: the pig cycle reversal is imminent, and the transgenic breeding policy is implemented
The pig cycle is about to reverse in 2022, and the layout is in the period of capacity removal. It is suggested to focus on Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) with prominent cost advantages and rapid growth of marketing scale; The production index has basically returned to the pre epidemic level and the capital reserve is relatively abundant Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) ; Relevant beneficial objects Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) .
Feed sales benefit from the high scale of pig stock, and the increase of column pressure in winter is unabated. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprises Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) with outstanding advantages in product power and service power.
The price rise conduction superimposes weather disturbance, and the planting chain landscape continues. It is suggested to pay attention to the Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) target of grain price increase. Highlight the recommendation of transgenic technology with outstanding advantages Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) where the fundamentals will improve; Related beneficiary objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
Market performance this week (12.06-12.10): Agriculture underperformed the market by 1.29 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.63%, the agricultural index rose 0.35%, underperforming the market by 1.29 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the feed sector led the increase, with an increase of 6.95%; Livestock breeding sector led the decline, down 2.37%. In terms of individual stocks, Wanxiang Doneed Co.Ltd(600371) (+ 23.71%), Fujian Tianma Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(603668) (+ 21.81%) and * ST Dongyang (+ 20.20%) led the gains.
Price tracking this week (12.06-12.10): pig prices fell and bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices rose
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on December 10, 2021, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 16.71 yuan / kg, down from - 1.1 yuan / kg last Friday; The average price of piglets was 23.25 yuan / kg, up from last Friday + 0.18 yuan / kg; The average price of white striped meat was 22.48 yuan / kg, down from -0.98 yuan / kg last Friday; The pig feed ratio is 4.67:1. According to wind data, on December 10, the average profit of self breeding head was 131.31 yuan / head, with a month on month ratio of -45.80 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased piglets was 294.07 yuan / head, with a month on month ratio of -32.40 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 1.46 yuan / feather, a month on month ratio of - 35.96%; The average price of wool chicken was 7.90 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of - 2.11%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was 0.14 yuan / feather, with a month on month ratio of -0.26 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices fell sharply; The situation of African swine plague worsened, and the number of listed enterprises was less than expected; The covid-19 epidemic has intensified, and the recovery of consumer demand is slower than expected.
