\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 139 Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) )
Event:
The company issued a performance express, and achieved a revenue of 7.822 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 40.68%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 563 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.50%; Deduct non net profit of 430 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.22%.
Our comments are as follows:
Revenue exceeded expectations. Under the turbulent environment of the supply chain, the “supply guarantee” strategy was firmly implemented, the market share was further improved, the number and quality of key customers increased, and key products grew at a high speed.
Revenue of 7.8 billion exceeded expectations and achieved the annual target. In the turbulent year of the external supply chain, the company firmly implemented the “supply guarantee” strategy, seized the opportunity of intelligent upgrading and increased demand concentration, and realized the growth of the number and quality of head customers, the improvement of market share and the rapid growth of key products. Specifically, the proportion of innovative intelligent devices and pan household appliances in the household appliance sector has increased rapidly, opening up room for growth; The share of multiple head customers in the tool sector increased; Lithium battery business takes lithium battery and inverter as the core and grows rapidly in the fields of household energy storage, portable energy storage and so on.
Short term costs, expenses and bad debt provision have a certain negative impact on current profits.
On the cost side, there was a large shortage of raw materials and a sharp rise in costs in the past 21 years. Although we responded by preparing goods in advance, domestic substitution and price transmission, the cost of some raw materials increased too much and the shortage was serious, which still had a great impact on the cost side of the whole year. On the cost side, in the past 21 years, the company has increased investment in high growth industries such as organizational reform and energy storage, resulting in a certain cost increment. The company prudently withdraws bad debt reserves for the overdue payment of individual customers. 21q4 the withdrawal of equity incentive expenses in a single quarter also had a certain impact on the current profit.
Looking forward to the next 22 years, 1) the revenue side is expected to continue the trend of demand growth, share concentration to the head and high-speed growth of key products, which is expected to continue to grow rapidly; 2) The shortage of raw materials and the rise in prices are expected to have an inflection point. The company focuses on reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and the gross profit margin is expected to return to the normal level; 3) The increase of cost input is expected to continue to be diluted with the rapid growth of income; 4) The impact of short-term provision and incentive expenses is gradually weakened. On the whole, the revenue is expected to continue to grow rapidly in 22 years, and the profit growth rate is higher.
In the medium and long term, 1) under the general trend of intellectualization, the demand for intelligent control continues to grow rapidly; 2) Global production capacity continues to be transferred to China; 3) China’s share is concentrated to the head, laying the foundation for 30% compound rapid growth in the next five years. Focusing on the general direction of intelligent control, the company has laid out the new energy business segment for many years, facing markets such as energy storage and light power, focusing on benefiting from the rapid penetration of lithium battery applications in various industries, which is expected to open up greater growth space. The equity incentive of the company defines the growth objectives of revenue and deduction of non net profit for 22-24 years, and superimposes measures such as organizational optimization, cost reduction and efficiency increase, which is expected to maintain the continuous growth of revenue and profit.
The company is expected to achieve a compound growth of 30% in the next five years. Although the short-term supply chain disturbance has a great pressure on the current cost, the company seizes the opportunity to obtain more major customers, further improves the market share, and the income exceeds expectations. In the future, with the return of the supply chain to normal and the weakening impact of short-term and one-time cost investment, the profit growth of the company is expected to accelerate. Due to the impact of costs, bad debt provision and equity incentive expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company for 21-23 years was adjusted from 680, 880 and 1.13 billion yuan to 560, 800 and 1.06 billion yuan, corresponding to 23 times of P / E in 22 years and 17 times of P / E in 23 years, and the “buy” rating was reiterated.
Risk warning: cost reduction and efficiency increase are slower than expected, epidemic impact is higher than expected, bad debt risk, market competition is higher than expected, downstream demand is lower than expected, performance express is the preliminary calculation result, and the actual performance is subject to the annual report
