The central economic work conference set the tone for steady growth in 2022
Steel prices continued to be stable this week. Although the table needs to fall, it is in line with seasonal performance. The central economic work conference held recently has become the focus of market attention. “Take economic construction as the center, promote the improvement of ‘quality’ and reasonable growth of quantity”, “all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced”, indicating that the policy tone has shifted to stable growth in an all-round way. Since the second half of 2021, dragged down by the rapid decline of the real estate chain, the steel demand has continued to weaken. However, with the relaxation of the real estate financing end and the increase of the willingness of the investment end, the steel demand may hit the bottom and rebound in the future. At present, it has been to the middle of December. During this period, the key to the trend of steel price lies in the “expectation” of demand. With the continuous introduction of macro underpinning policies, the guidance of demand expectation is gradually becoming positive. Due to policy correction, the “Sports” production restriction control may be significantly reduced in 2022, but the probability of complete supply liberalization under the background of carbon neutralization is low, especially at sensitive moments such as the Beijing Winter Olympic Games. Commodity stocks have fallen sharply since mid September. At present, the downward risk has been basically released, and the sector is expected to usher in rebound opportunities in the future, mainly benefiting from Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) .
Ore prices rebounded at the bottom and coke prices gradually hit the bottom
(1) Iron ore: the iron ore inventory in port 45 this week was 154849100 tons, an increase of 279800 tons month on month. The global shipment of iron ore was 34.666 million tons, an increase of 1.982 million tons week on month. Among them, the shipment from Australia was 17.736 million tons, an increase of 1.982 million tons week on month; the shipment from Brazil was 6.888 million tons, a decrease of 130000 tons week on month. At the same time, the hot metal output of 247 steel mills reached 1.987 million tons this week Million tons, down 18100 tons on a weekly basis. This week, the cumulative range of iron ore port inventory decreased significantly, steel production rebounded, and the low ore price operated smoothly. However, the current hot metal production continues to decline, and the superposition is in the off-season of demand. The steel mills are still cautious about upstream procurement, and the rebound space of ore prices may be limited in the future. (2) Coke: at present, the enterprise profit has recovered to a reasonable range. After the continuous decline of coke, the current coke enterprises have a strong willingness to support the price, but the downstream demand is weak. The two sides are still in the stage of fierce game, and the spot market operates stably in the short term.
Plate key data tracking
Weak demand operation: this week (December 06-december 10), the average trading volume of construction steel in China was 172400 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 12500 tons. According to the calculation of Mysteel data, the apparent consumption of rebar was 3.236 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.55%; the apparent consumption of hot rolled coil was 2.812 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.02%;
Supply continued to weaken: the national blast furnace operating rate (163) was 46.69%, with a decrease of 1.1pct on a weekly basis; the capacity utilization rate of Tangshan steel plant was 53.51%, with a decrease of 6.32pct on a weekly basis. The national weekly output of the five major varieties was 9.063 million tons, with a month on month increase of 159000 tons;
The profit performance was stable: this week (12.06-12.10), the gross profit per ton of deformed steel was 868 yuan, down 28 yuan month on month; the gross profit per ton of hot rolled plate was 782 yuan, up 28 yuan month on month; the gross profit per ton of cold rolled plate was 631 yuan, down 20 yuan month on month; the gross profit per ton of medium and heavy plate was 788 yuan, down 53 yuan month on month
Risk tip: terminal demand has fallen sharply, and the environmental protection production restriction policy is less than expected.
