\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Core view
Event: the company released the performance express of 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 31.874 billion yuan during the reporting period, a year-on-year increase of + 47.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 50.56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 2.922 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51.94%.
Comments:
The revenue side continued the steady growth trend, and the performance of the profit side was under pressure. Benefiting from the orderly release of the company's production capacity, the sales volume of pulp and paper products increased steadily, and the company's annual revenue performance met market expectations. From a single quarter, Q4 achieved a revenue of 8.160 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.14%, continuing the rapid growth trend. The net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 172 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 69.83%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 201 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 66.23%. We believe that: (1) due to the weak downstream demand, the paper price and pulp price of Q4 terminal are still low; (2) The cost pressure brought by high price slurry in the early stage is gradually shown in the statement; (3) Energy costs rose sharply and coal prices were at a high level, putting pressure on the company's Q4 profit side.
The paper price has gradually warmed up and the production capacity has been put in order, which is optimistic about the improvement of the company's profit in 2022. Since 2022, with the warming of demand and the gradual implementation of price increases by paper enterprises, the paper price has rebounded. As of February 25, 2022, the prices of double offset paper / coated paper / box board were + 3.51% / + 1.72% / + 0.12% respectively, and the company plans to increase the price of coated and non coated products by 300 yuan / ton from March 1, and has issued price increase notices for two consecutive weeks. In terms of production capacity, the company's cultural paper and household paper production line has been orderly put into operation in Q4, 2021, and plans to invest and build the "Forest Pulp paper integration and supporting industrial park project with an annual output of 5.25 million tons" in Nanning to further increase the production capacity layout. In the future, with the gradual implementation of the company's price increase and the orderly launch of new production capacity, the profitability is expected to rebound.
Investment suggestion: the profit hit the bottom and the rebound is expected. We are still optimistic about the long-term growth ability of the leading paper industry. Since Q1 this year, the downstream demand has improved and the channel inventory is low, driving the continuous recovery of the prices of cultural paper and household paper. We believe that Q4 is the bottom of the company's current profit, and the profitability can rebound with the recovery of paper price and the release of production capacity. Considering the impact of multiple factor disturbance on Q4 performance, we lowered the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.94/32.7/3.62 billion respectively (the original forecast value was RMB 3.51/40.1/4.43 billion), corresponding to the current market value PE of 11 / 10 / 9x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, sluggish demand, repeated epidemics and sharp fluctuations in raw material prices.
