\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 87 Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) )
Key investment points:
Event: on February 25, the company announced that Anhui anmeike, a Chinese subsidiary of AMK company, had recently received a customer notice that the company had become a batch supplier of air supply unit assembly products of air suspension system for a new platform project of an independent brand head enterprise in China. The life cycle of the project is 5 years, and the total amount of the life cycle is about 340 million yuan.
Comments:
Focus on the intelligent chassis strategy and continue to promote the business to move towards intelligence. (1) Intelligent chassis air suspension system business: with the advent of the era of new energy vehicles, the air suspension system has gradually moved from high-end to popularization, becoming the mainstream configuration of new energy vehicle platform, and the demand increases. The company's German AMK company is a global high-end supplier of automotive suspension system assembly products. China's air suspension market is in its infancy. Anhui anmeike, AMK's Chinese subsidiary, has made a breakthrough in its business, and has obtained orders from Weilai and Dongfeng lantu. Since 2021, the order amount of air suspension system has increased by 1.9 billion yuan. (2) Intelligent chassis - lightweight business: Automotive Lightweight has gradually become a broad consensus in the development of the automotive industry. Lightweight chassis products such as aluminum alloy control arm assembly have high single vehicle value. In recent years, the company has vigorously developed chassis lightweight system assembly products, and the project of forged aluminum control arm assembly has made a breakthrough. It has not only obtained orders from Mercedes Benz, Chang'an, GAC, Byd Company Limited(002594) and other traditional OEMs, but also made progress in the business of new energy head enterprises. Since 2021, the order amount of lightweight chassis system has increased by 4.3 billion yuan. (3) Thermal management pipeline system business: with the company's digestion and absorption of German TFH pipeline assembly technology, the single vehicle value of the company's thermal management products on new energy vehicles has increased significantly. At present, it has been supporting new energy vehicle platforms such as BMW, Volvo, Audi, Volkswagen, Geely, Xiaopeng and ideal. Since 2021, the new order amount of thermal management pipeline system is 2.8 billion yuan. (4) Sealing system business: the company's subsidiaries KACO in Germany, Cooper in the United States and acushnet in the United States have the top three sealing system technologies in the world. In recent years, the company has continuously increased the speed of business expansion, especially in American cars and independent brand customers, and the market share of the industry has increased steadily.
Overseas business gradually recovered, boosting the rapid growth of performance. The company continued to strengthen the integration, cost control and refined management of overseas enterprises. Through personnel reduction, cost control and cost optimization of overseas enterprises, with the recovery of the industry, the company improved the recovery speed and profitability of overseas business and helped the overall performance of the company recover. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 940-1.07 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 90.84% - 117.23%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 640860 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 117.18% - 191.84%.
Investment advice: maintain the recommended rating. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.86 yuan, 1.02 yuan and 1.22 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 23 times, 20 times and 17 times respectively, maintaining the recommended rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply, the production and sales of automobiles are less than expected, the acquisition or release of orders is less than expected, and the operation of overseas business is less than expected.
