\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 311 Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) )
Event:
Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) released the annual performance express of 2021: the company’s total operating revenue was 86.74 billion yuan, an increase of 43.79% year-on-year, and the net profit was 1.601 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.54% year-on-year. The annual performance basically met our expectations.
Key investment points:
In 2021, the revenue increased steadily, the pig price was low, and the pig sector dragged down the performance.
① in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 86.74 billion yuan (year-on-year + 43.8%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.601 billion yuan (year-on-year – 36.5%); Q4 achieved a revenue of 22.43 billion yuan (year-on-year + 35.8%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 145 million yuan, compared with 449 million yuan in the same period last year.
② from the perspective of the company’s business, the company’s annual feed external sales volume was about 18.77 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 28%. The company’s feed sales scale and product comprehensive competitiveness increased steadily; The company has sold about 2 million pigs, including about 1.3 million purchased piglets, accounting for more than 60% of the total. Due to the high price of purchased piglets at the beginning of the year, the marketing price of fat pigs in the second half of the year was low and the loss was large. The net profit loss of pig breeding operation in the whole year belongs to the parent company was between 900 million and 1 billion, which had a great impact on the overall operating performance of the company.
③ the annual staff expenses and capital costs of the company rise rapidly, which has a certain impact on the operating performance. The company’s annual staff increased by more than 7000, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and the company’s annual staff salary and other related expenses increased by more than 40% year-on-year; Due to the expansion of the company’s scale, the increase of loan amount and the rise of loan interest rate in China, the company’s financial expenses increased by about 70%.
The main feed industry has developed brilliantly, and its core advantages have been continuously strengthened. The company’s supporting animal protection and seedling business are the two wings of the feed business. Q4 company has a total external sales of about 4.77 million tons of feed, maintaining a stable development trend. At present, the feed industry is in the stage of capacity withdrawal of small enterprises. The price of raw materials represented by soybean meal has increased sharply, the feed price has increased continuously, the company’s cost advantage and product power advantage have been continuously strengthened, and various feed varieties can form a certain complementarity, laying a solid foundation for reaching the sales target of 40 million tons in 2025.
Low pig prices and high cost of purchased piglets dragged down performance. In 2021, the company raised about 2 million pigs and purchased about 1.3 million piglets, accounting for more than 60% of the total number. The ultra-high cost of purchased piglets and the cyclical low pig price led to a large amount of operating losses. As the cost of purchased piglets has dropped significantly since June, the cost of pig breeding is expected to gradually fall, and the loss of pigs is expected to narrow in stages. As the main strategic sector of the company, pig breeding can make full use of the supporting facilities of feed production capacity to realize the internal digestion of feed and the coordinated upgrading of industrial chain. On the premise that experience reserve, epidemic prevention monitoring and feed supply are guaranteed, it is expected to contribute higher performance elasticity and increment to the company after the reversal trend of pig price in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.601/25.71/5.574 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 68.17/42.45/19.58 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating
Risk warning: the risk of rising raw material prices; The risk of feed sales falling short of expectations; The risk that the rise of pig price is less than expected; The risk that the company’s performance does not meet expectations, etc.
