Total: the shortage of chips is gradually alleviated. It is expected that the sales of passenger cars will be + 10.0% year-on-year in 2022, and the medium and long-term recovery is still weak, with CAGR of 3-4% from 2021 to 2025. Since 2020h2, benefiting from the strong outbreak of independent models, the industry terminal sales have maintained a high momentum, superimposed on the disturbance of core shortage in 2021, and the industry channel inventory has been at a historical low. Benefiting from the replenishment demand + the sales backfill after the recovery of chip supply, we expect the sales of passenger cars to be 23.83 million in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 10.0%. In the medium and long term, the number of cars owned by 1000 people in China is about 200, slightly higher than the world average. There is a big gap compared with developed countries, and the industry space is still. We expect that the replacement demand will replace the first purchase demand in the future and become the main driving force for the growth of the industry. In 2025, the sales volume of passenger cars is expected to be 25 million, CAGR 3-4%.
Complete vehicle: intelligent electric resonance with independent rise, strong leading certainty. 1) Since 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has continued to reach a new high. In October, the sales volume was 368000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 148.1%, and the penetration rate reached 18.6%. The inflection point of accelerating penetration has been found, and there is no doubt about the prosperity of the industry. We predict that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022 / 2023 will be 4.58/5.62 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 34.7% / + 22.6% and a penetration rate of 19% / 24%. 2) All head car companies released a new generation of hybrid platform in 2021h2, It aims at the main household market (RMB 100000-200000), which has large market space (accounting for more than 50% of the overall sales volume) and low penetration rate of new energy (less than 10%), the success of hybrid models is expected to be one of the important factors for the differentiation of automobile enterprises in 2022. 3) in October, the market share of independent brands was 47.5%, 14 PCT higher than the low level of 2020m6, close to the historical high. In the recovery history, the fluctuation of independent market share before was mainly affected by external factors such as policies and SUV dividends, which is essentially the sales cycle of medium and low-end markets This round of increase in the share of independent brands mainly depends on the rise of automatic driving and new energy industry chain in China, as well as the continuous improvement of the brand strength of leading automobile enterprises, Finally, it has a firm foothold in the sales range of joint venture brands (more than 150000 yuan). Therefore, we believe that there is still room to improve the market share of independent brands in the future, and the leading companies are more certain. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Geely automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) .
Parts: from bottom to top, focus on intelligent driving and incremental configuration. Combing the sub tracks of various parts, we are still optimistic about intelligence & incremental configuration. Among them: 1) intelligent driving. It is expected that L2 level automatic driving will still be the main force in the next 2-3 years, while high-level automatic driving above L3 level will benefit from the “hardware embedding and configuration redundancy” strategy of the main engine factory. Core hardware such as domain controller and lidar have begun to be used in each flagship vehicle. It is recommended to pay attention to: Foryou Corporation(002906) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (computer group coverage); 2) the localization of new configurations such as air suspension is accelerated, and the mainstream market is expected to achieve a breakthrough of “from 0 to 1”. It is suggested to pay attention to: Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) .
Risk warning: the sales volume is less than expected due to the impact of epidemic situation and supply chain, the release of new cars is less than expected, and there is a certain risk of error between the calculation or the actual situation.
