\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Investment logic
The market-oriented reform was at the right time, and the operating fundamentals were better. As a leading liquor in Maotai flavor Baijiu, the company has taken a prominent position in the industry, and has implemented a flat channel structure, which has established a strong brand awareness at the terminal. In consumption scenes such as gifts, collections and business banquets, the demand for Maotai liquor is relatively rigid, and its strong business toughness can also be seen under the impact of external risks in recent years. After the new management went to the new, the company promoted multi-dimensional reform, cancelled the unpacking policy, straightened out the channel and product structure, strengthened brand cultural exchange and overweight digital marketing, so as to inject new vitality into the high-quality development of the company.
Production capacity has increased, support has increased, and multiple measures have driven the increase of ton price. 1) From the perspective of volume, the production capacity of Maotai liquor and series base liquor has been improved in 18 / 19, and the increment is expected to be gradually released in 22 years. According to the long-term planning of Zunyi and Renhuai, Maotai Liquor / Series liquor is expected to form double 100000 tons of production capacity in 35 years (the compound growth rate in 20 ~ 35 years is 5% / 10% respectively). 2) From the perspective of price, the company achieves the purpose of increasing the ton price through measures such as product / channel optimization and increasing the ex factory price / guide price. Recently, the rare Maotai and Maotai 1935 will also provide the company with incremental performance (the scale of revenue caliber is expected to be about 2.5/3 billion). On the whole, the current supply-demand gap of Maotai liquor is still high, and the company's volume and price rise together under the consumption upgrading dividend has strong support.
The external space is rich, so it is suggested to pay attention to the long profit logic of the return channel. We believe that the company can recover its external profits by inclined delivery through sub channels and directly increasing the ex factory price / guidance price. The sensitivity calculation shows that: 1) assuming that all pumao increment is put into the direct sales channel, the weighted ex factory price will rise by 2% ~ 3%; 2) Assuming that the ex factory price / guidance price is increased to 1399 yuan / 1799 yuan respectively, the compound growth rate of weighted ex factory price in 22 ~ 25 years is about 8%. 3) Under the assumption that the profit of the traditional channel is increased by 2.29 million tons to 1.5% and the net profit of the traditional channel is 1.5% to 1.5% respectively. We believe that at present, the company has been steadily promoting the sorting of the price system. Under the background of rich external space, the boost to the profit growth center will be considerable.
Investment advice and valuation
We expect the growth rate of the company's revenue in 21-23 years to be 11.2% / 15.3% / 16.0%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company to be 11.3% / 17.4% / 18.0%, EPS to be 41.4/48.6/57.3 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price to be 43.5/37.0/31.4 times respectively. Considering the value of comparable companies, considering the company as the leader of the Chinese Baijiu industry, its performance is highly deterministic, and the potential for market and marketing reform is expected to be gradually released, giving 23 times 40 times PE and the target price of 2293 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk / repeated epidemic risk / policy risk / food safety risk
