Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index increased by 1.63% and 1.47% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index increased by 0.88%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2021 (228 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by 5.57% and 4.43% respectively The (CITIC) index rose by 1.15%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen composite index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by 0.88%, ranking 13th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, 22 of the 29 CITIC first-class industries rose. The top three industries were catering and tourism, food and beverage and home appliances, with an increase of 9.05%, 5.55% and 5.16% respectively. Since 2021, the trade and retail industry has increased by 1.15%, ranking 20th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2021, 21 of the 29 CITIC first-class industries have risen. The top three industries are power equipment, non-ferrous metals and basic chemical industry, with an increase of 56.88%, 55.68% and 50.83% respectively.
In the past week, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were home appliance 3C chain, supermarket and professional market, with an increase of 2.78%, 2.04% and 1.40% respectively. Since 2021, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are trade, gold jewelry and general merchandise, with an increase of 26.70%, 14.30% and 8.55% respectively.
Over the past week, Among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 49 companies rose, 4 companies were flat and 40 companies fell. In the past week, the top three companies were cross-border communication, Hongtu high tech and Dalian Friendship (Group) Co.Ltd(000679) , with increases of 20.26%, 16.06% and 11.31% respectively. Since 2021, there have been 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 39 companies rose and 54 companies fell. Since 2021, the top three companies were commercial city, Shidai Wanheng and jinquanye, with an increase of 266.99%, 212.11% and 141.99% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
The recent performance of consumption data is still relatively flat. We expect that the performance of social consumption data in November 2021 may still be difficult to exceed market expectations, mainly due to the general performance of double 11, which may affect the overall consumption growth in November. According to the current data feedback, domestic demand still needs to be boosted in 2022. We expect the government to launch new favorable policies. Otherwise, we expect that consumption may still be in a relatively mild recovery state in 2022, and the slowdown of residents’ income growth will still have a certain inhibitory effect on consumption. From the subdivision category, we still look forward to gold jewelry track and Baijiu channel business, and suggest that investors can strengthen the allocation of the plates with certain investment hedging properties and anti inflation attributes in 2022. Suggestions for next week: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD.
Risk analysis:
The growth of consumer demand did not meet expectations. The post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
