\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 499 Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, which realized an operating revenue of 6.98 billion yuan (+ 40.7%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.19 billion yuan (+ 46.9%); Among them, 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 1.42 billion yuan (+ 54.9%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 200 million yuan (+ 82.3%) in a single quarter, which is in line with the disclosure of the performance express. Meanwhile, the company plans to pay 15 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders.
Dongpeng special drink continued to grow at a high rate, and the “energy +” product matrix was improved. 1. By category, Dongpeng special drink and other drinks achieved operating revenue of 6.59 billion yuan (+ 42.3%) and 370 million yuan (+ 22.2%) respectively. Among them, 500ml bottled special drinks, 250ml bottled special drinks and 250 Tetra Pak special drinks achieved revenue growth of 62.8%, 3.3% and 46.3% respectively. The capacity of the energy beverage track continues to expand, with a growth rate of about 10.8%. As a leading domestic energy beverage enterprise, Dongpeng will fully enjoy the bonus of the capacity expansion of the energy beverage industry. In 2021, the sales volume and sales account for 31.7% and 23.4% respectively. In addition, focusing on the continuous innovation and upgrading of energy drinks, the company launched new products such as 0 sugar special drink, Dongpeng Jiaxi, Chenpi special drink, Dongpeng big coffee and taneng, and improved the “energy +” product matrix. 2. In terms of subregions, Guangdong, East China, central China, Guangxi, southwest and North China achieved revenue growth of 29.7%, 79.1%, 44.3%, 39.5%, 65.4% and 45% respectively. We continued to implement all-channel intensive cultivation in the core markets of Guangdong base camp, East China, central China, Guangxi and southwest, adopted large circulation mode in other regions, and continued to improve the national sales system. In terms of dealer development, by the end of 2021, the company had 2312 dealers and 2.09 million active terminal outlets nationwide.
The improvement of product structure superimposed the decline of raw material cost, and the profitability reached a new high. 1. The overall gross profit margin was 44.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5pp, mainly due to: 1) the increase in the proportion of sales of 500ml gold bottles with high gross profit margin, which led to the increase of the overall gross profit margin of the company. 2) Lock the price of polyester chips before raw materials, and the purchase price fell. 3) The scale effect appears, and the sharing of fixed costs decreases. 2. In terms of expense rate, the sales expense rate was 19.6%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.4pp, mainly due to: 1) increasing the release of freezers and the promotion of supermarket promotion channels; 2) Increase the salary incentive of sales personnel. The management expense rate, R & D expense rate and financial expense rate were 3.6%, 0.6% and – 0.2% respectively, which was basically the same as that in the same period last year. The overall net interest rate was 17.1%, a year-on-year increase of 0.7pp, and the profitability reached a new high.
The construction of central China headquarters will improve the national layout, and the capacity bottleneck is expected to be alleviated. 1. The company signed a project entry agreement with the Management Committee of Changsha Jinxia Economic Development Zone, which will invest in the construction of central China regional headquarters and production base, reduce product transportation costs and further improve the national strategic layout. 2. Production bases in South China, Chongqing and Nanning will be built. After completion, it is expected to form a production capacity of 1.1 million tons, with a production period of about 5 years. The construction of production base will gradually release production capacity, alleviate the company’s production capacity bottleneck and strengthen the scale effect; At the same time, the construction of Chongqing base will help to further meet the market demand of the central and western regions and improve the market share. 3. The company signed an investment agreement with the Management Committee of Zhejiang Quzhou Zhizao new town and will invest 630 million yuan to build Zhejiang production base to meet the needs of the East China market.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.57 billion yuan, 1.98 billion yuan and 2.49 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 3.94 yuan, 4.95 yuan and 6.22 yuan respectively. The corresponding dynamic PE will be 43 times, 34 times and 27 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the nationwide promotion is not as expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; Food safety risks.
