Event: the central economic work conference was held from December 8 to 10 to summarize the economic work in 2021 and deploy the economic work in 2022.
Based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. The meeting called for a correct understanding and grasp of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, and the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. China’s energy structure of “rich coal, poor oil and little gas” determines the dominant position of coal. Although the proportion of coal consumption decreased from 68.5% to 56.8% from 2012 to 2020, it still accounts for half of the country, which is the most important guarantee for China’s energy security and stability. China’s original intention of unswervingly promoting the double carbon work remains unchanged, but it is impossible to complete its work in one battle. Building a new power system with new energy as the main body is a gradual process. The gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. At the current stage, it is not a simple coal withdrawal, but to “pay attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal” and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy. The coordinated development of coal (coal-fired power) and new energy is a consensus gradually formed by all walks of life in China since the power shortage this year. Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutralization is a complex project and long-term task. We should be firm in our goals and strive for progress in strategy while maintaining stability. The follow-up double carbon should avoid “sports, one size fits all” and “first stand before breaking” It also means that traditional energy will not exit too soon.
The energy consumption of raw materials is not included in the total energy consumption control. Energy consumption of raw materials refers to the energy consumption used as raw materials, that is, energy products such as oil, coal and natural gas are not used as fuel and power, but as raw materials and materials for the production of products. Energy products are converted into raw materials. It does not emit 100% of carbon dioxide into the air. Generally, only 20% is emitted and 80% is converted into raw materials. For a long time, the energy consumption of raw materials has been included in the statistics of all energy consumption and has not been listed separately. The reasons are as follows: first, the proportion of raw material energy consumption is relatively low; Second, the raw material energy consumption algorithm is relatively complex. The meeting clearly pointed out that “raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control”. After the implementation of “fine” statistics, the pressure on carbon emission of enterprises using fossil fuels as raw materials is expected to be reduced to a certain extent, which echoes with the clean and efficient utilization of coal mentioned in the meeting and is conducive to the development of modern coal chemical industry.
New renewable energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control. Since the implementation of China’s energy consumption dual control policy in the eleventh five year plan, its main purpose is to promote energy conservation of enterprises. At that time, the proportion of renewable energy in China was low, and the control of energy consumption did not distinguish whether the energy used was renewable or not, which had little impact. However, with the gradual expansion of the proportion of renewable energy, and in the context of double carbon, the above assessment mechanism is slightly unreasonable. Therefore, as early as September 16, the plan for improving the dual control of energy consumption intensity and total amount issued by the national development and Reform Commission has proposed that “encourage local governments to increase renewable energy consumption, and the consumption exceeding the minimum renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight will not be included in the assessment of the current total energy consumption in the region’s annual and five-year plans”. The meeting clearly put forward that “new renewable energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control”, which means that the state will vigorously encourage and support the development of renewable energy industry. Energy consuming enterprises can also increase the total energy consumption of enterprises by purchasing renewable energy, alleviate the pressure of dual energy control and benefit the development of green power.
Create conditions to realize the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible. More than 80% of the total energy consumption is high carbon energy consumption. Therefore, controlling the total energy consumption is closely related to controlling carbon emission, but there are also obvious differences between the concepts of energy consumption and carbon emission, The “dual control” of energy consumption and the “dual control” of carbon emission cannot be directly equated (the “dual control” of energy consumption is mainly based on the goal of economic development, while the “dual control” of carbon emission is based on the goal of ecological environment). Since this year, some regions and enterprises have encountered production and power restrictions (whether using clean energy or fossil energy), which is contrary to the goal of supporting the development of renewable energy. In the future, if the “double control” of carbon emission is realized instead of the “double control” of energy consumption, enterprises can choose clean energy independently, such as purchasing green power for expanded reproduction, getting rid of the total energy constraints, and also stimulating the driving force of enterprise energy transformation. Therefore, strengthen the control of carbon emission “Dual control” can more effectively resolve the energy consumption dilemma of enterprises, and implement classified policies to ensure the orderly promotion of the dual carbon goal.
Investment advice Based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, the market expectation of too fast coal withdrawal is eliminated, and the industry valuation needs to be repaired urgently. Stick to core assets and be optimistic about the valuation and repair of high long-term association and high score red coal enterprises. Key recommendations: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) . The transformation of traditional energy enterprises under the goal of “double carbon” is worth looking forward to, focusing on Power Investment energy (green power transformation), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Yankuang energy (modern coal chemical industry), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy) and China Xuyang group (hydrogen energy).
Risk tip: coal prices fell sharply and the economy went down more than expected.
