Main points:
This week's view
Q3 global cellular module shipments grew by 70% year-on-year, and the industry's high outlook continued. According to the latest data from counterpoint, the global cellular module shipment in 2021q3 increased by 70% year-on-year. Among them, the shipment of 5g modules increased by 700% year-on-year due to the low base, while the demand for NB IOT was strong, accounting for more than one third of the shipment.
Q3 Chinese manufacturers fully catch up with and surpass overseas, and the standard is NB IOT and cat 1 transfer. The top five model group manufacturers with Q3 shipment share are all from China. Among them, benefiting from the huge growth of Nb IOT and 4G CAT1 modules, the year-on-year growth of Yiyuan shipment is close to 80%, accounting for 31.6%; The shipment volume of Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) increased by 84% year-on-year, accounting for 9.6%, maintaining the second place; The 3rd-5th places are China Mobile, Sunsea Aiot Technology Co.Ltd(002313) and Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) respectively.
Looking ahead to next year, we believe that the main factors driving the sustained high prosperity of the industry are: 1) the large volume of vehicle modules. On the one hand, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles continues to grow rapidly, the assembly rate of Internet of things modules is 100% - 200%, the lack of core in the traditional automotive field is gradually alleviated, and the assembly rate of Internet of things modules is 30-40%. In addition, the vehicle Internet connection scheme is iterative from 4G to 5g and from simple Internet connection to intelligence, The overall value has increased; 2) 2G and 3G network withdrawal brings cat The replacement of module 1. With the gradual withdrawal of 2G and 3G networks and the layout rhythm of new networks by operators in various countries, cat 1. The module has formed a relatively natural growth rate; 3) According to the plan, by 2023, the 5g application penetration rate of large industrial enterprises will be 35%, the growth rate of 5g Internet of things terminals will be 200%, and 3000 virtual private networks in 5g industry will be built. Among them, the digital transformation of industries such as smart factory, smart mine and smart port will bring considerable incremental demand in the future; 4) According to the data of 5g Internet of things industry alliance, the number of global 5g CPEs is expected to increase from 3 million in 2020 to 120 million in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 109.13%, and the market scale is expected to increase from 4.8 billion yuan in 2020 to 60 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 65.72%. In particular, the overseas optical fiber deployment is not perfect, and CPE has great prospects for FWA scenarios. 5) China's electric two wheeled vehicles and their power management are networked and intelligent. In 2020, the number of two wheeled electric vehicles in China exceeded 300 million and the sales volume exceeded 30 million. This year, the sales volume is expected to be 50-60 million. With the implementation of China's safety technical specifications for electric two wheeled vehicles, vehicle machine networking, BMS battery management system, shared electric vehicles, power exchange cabinets The incremental market brought by intelligent charging socket is huge.
In terms of competition pattern, we believe that the pattern of traditional fields will be stable next year and new entrants will usher in emerging fields. In terms of sub fields, 1) in the field of vehicle, moving far will maintain the first position in the Chinese market, with a market share of more than 60%. At the same time, Tier1 manufacturers such as Valeo will actively expand the overseas market. Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) after the acquisition of Sierra car assets, it will achieve a leading position in the overseas market. At the same time, it will actively expand China's new power market through Guangtong Yuanchi. Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) may become a new entrant and obtain a certain market share. 2) In the field of laptop, Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) will continue to maintain its dominant position in this field, and its market share is expected to maintain more than 60%, moving far away from the share of low rate modules. In addition, if Apple launches models with front installed cellular modules, other laptop manufacturers will follow up, resulting in the improvement of the overall module built-in rate and market expansion. At that time, the field will also usher in new entrants. 3) In the pan IOT field, emerging markets such as CPE and shared equipment may usher in many new entrants, while the pattern of traditional fields such as POS, meter, security and power is basically stable.
Investment advice
Internet of things modules continue to boom, and the market share continues to focus on Chinese manufacturers. Looking forward to next year, vehicle, industry, overseas CPE, electric two wheeled vehicles and other scenarios will drive the industry to continue to grow rapidly. Due to the broad market prospect, emerging fields such as vehicle will usher in new entrants. In terms of investment suggestions, it is recommended to continuously recommend Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) , pay attention to Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) , continuously recommend Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) , and pay attention to Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) .
Risk statement
The shortage of upstream raw material supply leads to the lower than expected shipment; Downstream 5g application expansion is less than expected
