This week’s view: this week’s central economic work conference emphasizes adhering to the positioning of “housing, housing and non speculation”, strengthening expected guidance, exploring new development models, adhering to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerating the development of long-term rental housing market, promoting the construction of indemnificatory housing, supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban measures. At present, the real estate industry is still facing downward pressure. The overall popularity of the three batches of local auctions in hot cities such as Xiamen and Chengdu is flat. The director of the Bureau of Statistics said at the China annual economic conference that “real estate is a pillar industry, and housing is the consumption of residents”. He fully affirmed the positive role of commercial housing. It is expected that more support measures will be implemented in the future under the guidance of promoting a virtuous circle, Drive the industry’s financing, sales and land purchase to gradually return to normal. In terms of investment suggestions, the short-term industry liquidity crisis has not been eliminated, the policy game space is still in place, the medium and long-term industry bottoms out and stabilizes, and the leading real estate enterprises will benefit more from the warmth of policies and stand out with comprehensive advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) . The property management and business management sectors have broad industrial space, stable stock and strengthened independent development. Under the trend of increasing policy support and concentration, mainstream participants have great prospects. They are optimistic about property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength and continuous good operation, such as country garden service and poly property, as well as commercial operators occupying high-quality tracks in shopping centers and strong asset light output strength, Such as Xingsheng commerce, etc. From the perspective of industrial chain, it is suggested to pay attention to waterproof faucet Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) .
Policy environment monitoring: 1) meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the central economic work conference: accelerating the construction of affordable housing and promoting a virtuous circle of the real estate industry; 2) Xi’an: limited price houses can be listed for trading after 5 years of online signature filing, and other houses can be purchased; 3) The third batch of centralized land supply in Xiamen, Chengdu and other places ended: the bottom price or low premium rate was the mainstream
Market operation monitoring: 1) second hand housing transactions picked up month on month and are expected to stabilize gradually. This week (12.4-12.10) 47000 new houses and 13000 second-hand houses were sold respectively, with a month on month decrease of 3.5% and an increase of 7.9%. In November, the average daily turnover of new houses decreased by 24.8% year-on-year, a decrease narrower than that in October 2pct. At the end of the year, the peak selling season plus the mortgage side policy eased, and subsequent transactions are expected to gradually stabilize. 2) the proportion of improved demand is flat month on month. In November 2021, among the transactions of commercial houses in 32 cities, the number of units above 90 Ping accounted for the proportion The month on month ratio was flat, accounting for 77.7%. 3) Inventories were flat month on month, facing upward pressure. The inventory of 16 cities was 101.83 million square meters, unchanged month on month. Under the pressure of actively obtaining evidence, pushing the plate and removing chemicals, the inventory is facing upward pressure. 4) The land transaction and premium rate fell, and the proportion of the first line increased. Last week, the land supply and construction area of Baicheng was 12.947 million square meters and the transaction construction area was 16.106 million square meters, with a month on month decrease of 79.6% and 53.6%; The transaction premium rate was 2.3%, down 0.6pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 54.6%, 31.3% and 14.1% respectively, with a month on month increase of 46.8pct, a decrease of 19.3pct and a decrease of 27.5pct respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: this week, domestic real estate enterprises issued bonds of 4.84 billion yuan, an increase of 640 million yuan month on month, and overseas bonds issued US $350 million, an increase of US $350 million month on month. 2) Trust: this week, collective trust issued 6.09 billion yuan, down 139 million yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: this week, the real estate sector rose by 2.29%, underperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen by 300 (3.14%); the current PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 7.92 times, and the valuation is 9.36% in the past five years. This week, the net capital inflow of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north is China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ; the net capital inflow to the south is to the top three real estate enterprises, serving country garden, China Evergrande and rongchuang China.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Large scale impairment risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
