Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: Comments on financial data in November – weak loan demand + financial postposition
On December 9, the central bank released the financial data for November 2021. Among them, the increment of social financing scale in November 2021 was 2.6 trillion yuan, 474.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The stock of social financing scale increased by 10.1% year-on-year and 0.1pct month on month. RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 160 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The balance of RMB loans increased by 11.7% year-on-year, down 0.2pct month on month. The growth rates of M1 and M2 were 3% and 8.5% respectively, with a month on month increase of 0.2 PCT and a decrease of 0.2 PCT respectively. RMB deposits increased by 1.14 trillion yuan, 960 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The balance of RMB deposits increased by 8.6% year-on-year and decreased by 0.5pct month on month.
Analysis of social financing scale: weak loan demand + financial postposition effect
In November, the scale of social financing increased by 2.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 474.5 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly driven by corporate bonds and government bonds, and the financial postposition effect was obvious. In November, social financing was mainly dragged down by the pressure drop of RMB loans and trust scale. Specifically:
In terms of on balance sheet financing, RMB loans increased by 1.3 trillion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 230.9 billion yuan, and foreign currency loans increased by – 13.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3 billion yuan. Credit growth was lower than expected, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on Residents’ short-term credit and weak demand for medium and long-term loans.
In terms of off balance sheet financing, entrusted loans increased by 3.5 billion yuan in November and trust loans decreased by 219 billion yuan, a significant increase over October, mainly because the transition period of new asset management regulations is coming to an end. On the whole, the tone of the pressure drop of non-standard financing has not changed, and the pressure drop of trust loans is still large. However, considering that the pressure drop of trust loans has been large since September last year, it is expected that the pressure drop of trust loans in December will not become the main factor hindering social finance. Undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by RMB – 38.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of RMB 24.2 billion, mainly affected by the increase of bill discount scale.
From the perspective of direct financing, 410.4 billion corporate bonds and 129.4 billion domestic stocks of non-financial enterprises were added in November, an increase of 326.4 billion yuan and 53.2 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, corresponding to the acceleration of new government bonds, indicating that the financial postposition effect is obvious.
In November, 815.8 billion yuan of government bonds were added, an increase of 415.8 billion yuan year-on-year, showing a financial postposition effect. In November, government bonds continued the high growth trend in October. It is expected that the new scale of government bonds in December will still be the main contributor to the growth of social finance.
RMB loan analysis: weak loan demand of enterprises
In November, RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 160 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Among them, the scale of bill financing increased by 80.1 billion yuan year-on-year, and the scale of medium and long-term loans decreased by 169.8 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting the lack of effective credit demand. Specifically, for sub sectors:
RMB loans to the residential sector increased by 733.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 151.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 96.9 billion yuan, mainly related to the disturbance of the epidemic situation. Medium and long-term loans increased by 582.1 billion yuan, an increase of 77.2 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the loosening of the margin of the real estate policy and the continued provision of mortgage loans by banks.
Short term loans to the enterprise sector increased by 567.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 213.3 billion yuan. Medium and long-term loans to enterprises increased by 341.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 247 billion yuan. On the one hand, the margin of real estate policy has widened, but the growth of development loans is lower than expected. On the other hand, the capital expenditure and medium and long-term financing demand of manufacturing enterprises are still weak. The net financing amount of bills was 160.5 billion yuan, an increase of 80.1 billion yuan year-on-year, showing a bottom impulse phenomenon.
Deposit side analysis: significant effect of fiscal expansion
At the end of November, the balance of M2 was 235.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% and a month on month decrease of 0.2pct; M1 balance was 63.75 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month on month increase of 0.2pct. M2-m1 scissors difference narrowed for the first time after six months of month on month growth, reflecting the improvement of economic vitality.
In November, RMB deposits increased by 1.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 960 billion yuan. The balance of RMB deposits increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.5pct month on month. Among them, fiscal deposits decreased by 728.1 billion yuan this month, 185.7 billion yuan in the same period last year, 542.4 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting the significant effect of fiscal policy expansion and the gradual formation of physical workload. Investment strategy: in November, the social finance growth rate and M1 growth rate both stabilized and rebounded, showing the gradual improvement of economic vitality. It is expected that with the implementation of RRR reduction, the scale of follow-up loans will also accelerate. In the future, under the background of the implementation of a number of stable economic policies and the gradual formation of financial physical workload, the economy will hit the bottom and pick up. For banks, the fastest stage of credit contraction has passed. With the policy underpinning the economy, the business environment will continue to improve. It is suggested to focus on high-quality banks with stable operation, such as Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) .
Risk tip: policy risk; The risk of macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations; The global covid-19 epidemic continues to deteriorate.
