Global crude oil market: crude oil prices recovered due to the easing of market concerns about Omicron. In terms of global crude oil supply and demand pattern, the current marginal increment of global crude oil supply remains stable, mainly affected by OPEC + production increase. The 23rd OPEC + ministerial meeting reconfirmed the plan to increase production by 400000 barrels / day in January 2022. The number of crude oil drilling rigs in the United States was 467, the number of drilling rigs kept rising, and the overall output recovered slowly. On the demand side, the global crude oil consumption continues to recover, the global crude oil floating warehouse continues to decline, which is lower than the same period in 2019, and the crude oil floating warehouse in Europe and the United States is at the median level in recent four years. The operating rate of refineries in the United States has basically recovered, with an operating rate of 89.8% this week. The inventory of crude oil and total oil products in the United States is at a new low level in the same period in recent six years. At present, the inventory of crude oil is 432.87 million barrels, a year-on-year decrease of 13.98%, and the total inventory of oil products is 1226.36 million barrels, a year-on-year decrease of 10.74%. The energy consumption in the United States continues to recover.
Global natural gas market: the supply of main gas supply pipelines from Russia to Europe is low; The import volume of LNG in Europe returned to the pre epidemic level, and the natural gas inventory was 717.37twh, a year-on-year decrease of 23.19%, maintaining the lowest level in the same period in recent 6 years; The LNG Export of the United States continued to be higher than that of the same period in history. The natural gas inventory was 3505 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year decrease of 16.86%. The subsequent export volume may be affected by China’s supply and demand balance; China’s natural gas demand is increasing gradually, and the cumulative import volume in 2021 is higher than that in the same period of previous years. Global natural gas supply and demand maintain a tight balance.
Global coal market: China’s coal imports fell back to the normal level, European coal imports and coal exports from Indonesia, the United States and Australia returned to the same period before the epidemic, and the global coal supply and demand structure continued to maintain a tight balance.
Risk tips:
The errors of satellite positioning and tanker tracking data affect the results; Errors from other third-party data sources have an impact on the results; The model fitting error affects the results.
