Event: according to Xinhuanetco.Ltd(603888) , the central economic work conference from December 8 to 10 pointed out that it is necessary to correctly understand and grasp the carbon peak and carbon neutralization. It is necessary to conduct scientific assessment, exclude the new renewable energy and raw material energy from the total energy consumption control, create conditions to realize the transformation from "double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, accelerate the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon, and prevent simple layer by layer decomposition.
Alleviate the expectation of "no rice in the pot" in the new increment of chemical industry, and scientifically assess the double control of energy consumption, which is good for the chemical industry leader. Since 2021h2, the dual control restriction policy on energy consumption issued by the national development and Reform Commission has brought uncertain expectations for the future increment of the chemical industry. On the one hand, it is due to the stereotype that the chemical industry is "not green enough". On the other hand, lithium battery and energy storage, which are the main carrier of photovoltaic, wind power and green power cycle as the main renewable energy, have a great impact on its power generation, storage The raw materials required in the production process of power users and supporting equipment are inextricably linked with the upstream chemical industry. The energy consumption of chemical production capacity of this part of "new energy" label has formed a "crowding out effect" on other chemical sub industries under the expectation of total energy consumption control. Therefore, for the chemical industry, the "raw material energy consumption" in the "new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption not included in the total energy consumption control" set by the central economic work conference, whether understood as "renewable energy related raw materials" or "kerosene gas and other chemical raw materials", the above "crowding out effect" no longer exists, This also alleviates the expectation that the new incremental raw material end of some chemical industries may be "cooked without rice" in the future.
However, it should be noted that at a time when the "new energy" new infrastructure has not been fully formed, the restriction of dual control of energy consumption still exists, This can be seen from the notice of the national development and Reform Commission and other departments on Issuing the benchmark level and benchmark level of energy efficiency in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2021 version) on January 15. The purpose of the document is to set up energy efficiency benchmarks and benchmarks to guide a series of traditional "two highs" such as oil refining, coal to coke / olefin / methanol / ethylene glycol, caustic soda, ethylene, yellow phosphorus and synthetic ammonia For the orderly development of projects, new projects should be constructed and implemented according to the energy efficiency benchmark level. For stock projects with energy efficiency lower than the industry benchmark level, they should not be transformed and upgraded or eliminated during the policy transition period, that is, "energy consumption right" = "development right". Due to the advantages of production scale and technology, the advantages of energy efficiency level of leading chemical enterprises are more obvious, The situation that the strong are always strong is expected to be strengthened in the long run.
The shift from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of total carbon emission and intensity is conducive to the long-term growth of chemical industry leaders. The second key point is to "create conditions to realize the transformation from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, and speed up the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for pollution reduction and carbon reduction", which also means that the chemical industry should take measures to transform the stereotype of "not green enough". After all, it does not mean that the raw material energy is not included in the total control, In addition to the greening of energy consumption itself through photovoltaic wind power, the carbon emission intensity involved in chemical production process should also be considered. On the one hand, in addition to developing carbon dioxide absorption and reuse technologies, Optimization of manufacturing process (such as low-cost green hydrogen replacing water gas shift) and production of higher value-added products (higher industrial value-added output under unit emission intensity) is also preferred. In this regard, chemical industry leaders often have more advantages with complete industrial chain and technological R & D strength; on the other hand, under the incentive and restraint mechanism of China's carbon trading market, chemical leading enterprises with lower energy consumption benchmark and unit emission are expected to avoid higher additional costs brought by carbon quota mechanism, even in the early stage It is possible to profit from the free quota surplus. In the long run, with the expected rise of social carbon cost, the carbon trading mechanism is expected to eventually form a cost side access barrier, that is, "emission right" = "right to development".
Investment suggestion: To sum up, leading chemical companies are expected to benefit from the scientific assessment of dual control of energy consumption + total carbon emission and intensity. It is recommended to pay attention to Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Risk tip: the policy implementation is less than expected, and the macroeconomic performance is less than expected
