Talk every Monday:
Last week, when CITIC basic chemical fell 1.2%, the carbon fiber sector bucked the trend and rose 11%, showing a more eye-catching performance. We believe that in addition to continuing to expand the application of carbon fiber in the field of wind power blades, its application in the hydrogen energy industry chain will also be paid more and more attention, and its demand space is still huge. This week, we will analyze the demand prospect of carbon fiber in the hydrogen energy industry chain.
From the policy perspective, the state has always attached importance to the development of hydrogen energy industry, including the 13th five year plan for the development of national strategic emerging industries, the development plan for new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035), etc. the introduction of national and industrial policies has provided a good policy environment for promoting the promotion of hydrogen energy industrialization and capacity improvement in China.
The development of hydrogen energy industry will increase the demand for vehicle hydrogen storage bottles. Depending on the material, The hydrogen storage tank can be divided into pure steel metal bottle (type I), steel liner filament wound bottle (type II), aluminum liner filament wound bottle (type III) and plastic liner filament wound bottle Compared with the four types (type IV), type IV hydrogen storage bottle mainly has the advantages of lightweight. This also makes type IV hydrogen storage bottle more suitable for vehicle mounted, and is expected to be gradually popularized in China in the future. We expect that the demand for carbon fiber in the field of hydrogen storage bottle will reach about 2500 tons by 2025.
Japan’s export ban promotes the acceleration of import substitution. Type IV hydrogen storage bottles have high requirements for the brand of carbon fiber, and most of them use Toray T700 Carbon Fiber (tensile strength 4900mpa, modulus 230MPa) or equivalent materials. However, after Toray implemented the export ban on medium and high-end carbon fiber in China last year, the supply of carbon fiber in China’s pressure vessel field continues to be tight, and the replacement of domestic carbon fiber is expected to accelerate.
Investment strategy: at present, China’s hydrogen energy industry is still in the early stage of industrialization. With the implementation of the stimulus policies for the hydrogen energy industry, carbon fiber enterprises that layout relevant businesses in advance are expected to usher in new performance growth points. It is suggested to pay attention to Zhongfu Shenying, Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) and other industry leaders with high-performance carbon fiber production technology and hydrogen storage bottle customer resources.
Market review:
Sector performance: this week, CITIC’s basic chemical sector fell 1.2%, and the composition of the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4%. Compared with the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period, the basic chemical sector lagged behind by 1.6 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the basic chemical sub sector mainly rose this week, with carbon fiber, potash fertilizer, tires, spandex, daily chemicals and other sub sectors leading the rise; Electronic chemicals, rubber additives, cotton fiber, fluorochemicals, viscose and other sub sectors led the decline
Rise and fall of individual stocks: the basic chemical sector led the rise this week, including Zhejiang Oceanking Development Co.Ltd(603213) , Shenzhen Wote Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002886) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ; Leading stocks include Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co.Ltd(002805) , Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) , HuaSu shares, Xilong Scientific Co.Ltd(002584) , Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) and so on; Leading losers include.
Risk tips: the risk of fluctuations in international oil prices, the risk of repeated global epidemics, etc.
