Key investment points:
The banking sector improved steadily this week (12.6-12.10). As of the last trading day of this week, the price to book ratio was lf0.64pb, which was higher than the valuation last week, and the market heat continued to improve. The average daily trading volume was 1201.612 billion yuan (mom + 2.90%), and the central bank had a wide caliber this week (including 7-day reverse repurchase) the net return was 180 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase interest rate was maintained at 2.20%. Considering the long-term capital of 1.2 trillion yuan brought by the RRR reduction, the overall liquidity was still relatively loose; on Friday (December 10), it was announced that the weighted value of dr007 was 2.14%, which was at a normal low level.
The central economic work conference consolidated the future economic expectations, looked forward to the economic policy expectations in 2022, and actively promoted the rapid economic development. Under the background of shrinking demand, superimposed supply shocks and weakening expectations, looking forward to the future, the formulation and implementation of policies will be quite friendly to economic recovery and development, continue to strengthen the policy environment, and lift the economy from investment, consumption and export to a steady and high-quality development path; In addition, in the process of China's risk response practice, we have accumulated a regular understanding of doing a good job in economic work.
"Stability" is the most prominent keyword of the central economic work conference. Next year's economic work must be "steady and steady". All localities and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, actively promote policies conducive to economic stability, prudently introduce policies with contractionary effects, make policy efforts appropriate to advance, adjust policies and push forward reforms, and grasp the good time and efficiency. We should maintain strategic concentration and patience, not short-term long-term goals, fragmented system goals, and not turn a protracted war into an assault war. Strengthen overall planning and coordination to avoid the superposition of local reasonable policies, resulting in negative effects. We should also prevent the fallacy of decomposition, avoid making the overall task simple, and we should not add code layer by layer, which makes it difficult for the grass-roots level to bear.
Fiscal and monetary policies should be coordinated and linked, and cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro policies should be organically combined. The great potential of domestic demand is our advantage. We should implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promote the sustained recovery of consumption, actively expand effective investment, and focus on the combination of steady growth, structural adjustment and benefiting the people's livelihood. We should appropriately advance infrastructure construction, increase investment in pollution reduction, carbon reduction, new energy, new technology, Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) clusters and other fields, expand short-term demand and enhance long-term momentum. In the previous stage, gas pipeline explosion accidents occurred in some places. It is necessary to strengthen the investigation and transformation of urban underground pipe network and build a people-centered Lizi project.
The 20th CPC National Congress will be held next year, which is a major event in the political life of the party and the country. We should maintain a stable and healthy economic environment, a peaceful social environment for the country and the people, and a clean and positive political environment. We should ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure and speed up the progress of expenditure. We will implement new tax reduction and fee reduction policies, strengthen support for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, manufacturing and risk resolution, and moderately advance infrastructure investment. Strict financial discipline. We will resolutely curb new implicit debts of local governments. Guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development. We should enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, start a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects, and stimulate the emergence of a large number of "specialized, special and new" enterprises. We should pay close attention to the pilot of comprehensive reform of market-oriented allocation of factors, fully implement the stock issuance registration system, complete the three-year action task of state-owned enterprise reform, and steadily promote the reform of natural monopoly industries such as power grid and railway.
Risk statement
Repeated epidemic risk, tightening of monetary policy, risk of increasing non-performing rate, outbreak of major risks and events of default, etc
