Focus this week: Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) , Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) , Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , First Tractor Company Limited(601038) .
Core view of this week: continue to be optimistic about the opportunities of wind power, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy, nuclear energy and other related equipment under the background of carbon neutralization, especially the equipment demand caused by the changes of materials and processes brought about by the upgrading of energy forms. Focus on carbon fiber, hydrogen storage and transportation and other fields.
The technical difference between polymerization and spinning is an important reason for the cost difference of precursor
The process of carbon fiber precursor is mainly divided into three processes: polymerization, sizing and spinning, in which polymerization and spinning are important processes. 1) The two-step process is more complex than the one-step process, but it can obtain high molecular weight pan that can not be obtained by solution polymerization. The dissolved stock solution can be used in a wide range of spinning, which improves the upper limit of molecular weight and concentration of stock solution polymer. However, due to the longer process, there may be some disadvantages in cost; 2) Compared with the wet spinning process, according to the analysis of PAN based carbon fiber production cost analysis and control measures, under the same conditions, the solid content can be increased to more than 22%, the spinning speed can be increased to 300m / min, the output can be increased by 2 ~ 8 times, and the production cost of PAN based carbon fiber precursor can be reduced by 75%.
The key point is to shorten the pre oxidation carbonization time
In the production process from precursor to carbon filament, the key links include pre oxidation and carbonization. From the perspective of cost reduction, shortening the time of pre oxidation and carbonization is the focus. New technologies include the pre oxidation process completed on the precursor production line + microwave carbonization (NEDO, Japan, the process can be greatly simplified, the whole process can also be reduced by 50%, and the adhesion between carbon fiber and resin can be improved), plasma pre oxidation method (American oak laboratory, the pre oxidation time is only 25-35min, which is 2.5-2 times shorter). Optimize the equipment performance and shorten the process time.
The scale effect of carbon fiber industry is obvious
Carbon fiber industry has typical scale effect. According to the analysis of PAN based carbon fiber dimension production cost analysis and control measures, the scale of precursor project is increased from 250t / A to 3000t / A, The cost per ton can be increased from 102700 yuan / ton to 58100 yuan / ton (- 43.4%); when the scale of carbon fiber project is increased from 100t / A to 1000t / A, the cost per ton can be increased from 470800 yuan to 206800 yuan (- 56.1%), reflecting a significant scale effect. Toray’s industrial carbon fiber achieved a stable upward yield after breaking 10000 tons, and China’s leading enterprises represented by Jilin Carbon Valley and Zhongfu Shenying also showed a significant scale effect. In the future, the demand for large tow carbon fiber driven by wind power, hydrogen storage bottle and photovoltaic thermal field will be superimposed by Japan’s Toray ban on Chinese enterprises (limited) sales to China’s carbon fiber industry provide development opportunities for overtaking on curves.
Risk statement
1. The progress of wind power carbon fiber blades is lower than expected; 2. The risk of greater impact on China’s supply caused by Dongli’s export liberalization; 3. Risk of pressure in short-term carbon fiber production due to stricter blockade of equipment links.
