Key investment points
Investment strategy: the 2021 central economic work conference stressed that the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy, based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, pay attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal, and the new renewable energy and raw material energy should not be included in the total energy consumption control. The above statement expresses the support for new energy and high-end coal chemical industry, which is good for the coal demand to a certain extent. Under the condition of lack of early planning investment, the constraints on the coal supply side are still strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource and stock capacity or high profits in the next few years, Now mainstream stocks pay dividends according to 50-60%, and the dividend rate of coal stocks is expected to reach the double-digit level. Coal assets need to be repriced and continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector. The first batch of medium and long-term contracts signed in 2022 coal fair exceeded 260 million tons. Shanxi has carried out medium and long-term contract signing, and there is a great possibility of raising the benchmark price. This coal price increase may also accelerate the market-oriented reform of electricity price, and the overall profitability of coal enterprises will be improved in the future. In the short term, we believe that the policy regulation risk, coal price adjustment risk and real estate demand side decline risk of the coal sector are fully released, and we are optimistic about the rebound of the sector. Thermal coal stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Summary and Prospect of thermal coal: the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the purchase of high inventory is slowing down. This week, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in QinGang Shanxi was 1090 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. In terms of supply, state-owned enterprises and large mines are implemented according to the price limit level, and the price is relatively stable; The closing of the national coal trading conference released the information of the coal price increase of the long association. There was a strong wait-and-see mood in the market. The high shipping cost led to a decline in procurement. Most coal mines began to have a backlog of inventory, and the prices of some coal mines in Yulin, Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) and other places decreased. In terms of import, China’s demand is weak, the quotation of foreign mines is still strong, and the transaction is cold. In terms of demand, the overall inventory of power plants is high. As of December 9, the total inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces reached 35.739 million tons, while the daily consumption increased slowly (2.05 million tons), and the procurement slowed down. On the whole, the market wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the follow-up attention is paid to the weather and inventory consumption.
Summary and Prospect of coking coal: the demand recovers gradually and the price rises slightly. Mainstream coking coal prices have been stable this week, Price increase of Shanxi produced main coke coal depot in Jingtang Port (tax included) 2350 yuan / ton, which was flat on a week-on-week basis. The prices of Shanxi and some coal types rebounded slightly, and the price of coking coal in Wuhai region continued to strengthen. In terms of supply, the improvement of shipment led to the active production of some coal mines, most of which still maintained a high operating rate, and a few of which fell due to the completion of the tasks of the whole year. In terms of import, Ganqi Maodu port was opened to traffic on the 4th of this week 92 cars (month on month – 150 vehicles). Affected by the epidemic, the number of customs clearance vehicles decreased, the supply of goods was small, and the downstream signed orders actively, resulting in the rise of Mongolian coal prices. On the demand side, the profits of coke enterprises gradually recovered, the production willingness increased, and some coke enterprises began to increase production and replenish stocks appropriately. On the whole, the operation of China’s coking coal market has an improving trend, with stable supply and rising demand. We will continue to pay attention to the downstream Coke and real estate infrastructure demand.
Coke summary and Outlook: profits continue to improve and focus on the marginal improvement of real estate. As of December 10, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2560 yuan / ton, which was flat on a weekly basis and operated stably. In terms of supply, affected by environmental protection and production restriction, some coke enterprises in Shanxi maintained low load operation, a few started to pick up slightly, the coke price hit the bottom and stabilized, driving the recovery of market sentiment, and the demand for goods inquiry and replenishment increased, The profits of coke enterprises gradually picked up (as of December 9, the national average profit per ton of coke was 72 yuan / ton, compared with + 51 yuan / ton on a week-on-week basis), and there are many bullish expectations. In terms of demand, the demand for winter storage and replenishment of storage drives the recovery of steel mills’ purchasing enthusiasm. With the approaching of the East Olympic Games, many steel mills in Tangshan, Hebei Province still shut down and stuffed their furnaces this week, the shutdown and maintenance of high-speed furnaces increased, and the operating rate of blast furnace and molten iron production continued to decline, restraining coke production Carbon demand. Follow up attention will be paid to the possibility of marginal improvement in the real estate industry, and the coke demand may improve.
Power coal: the port coal price was flat and the port inventory decreased. (1) As of December 10, the price of 5500 kcal Shanxi thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 1090 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week on week basis. (2) as of December 9, the price of thermal coal in Newcastle was 156.46 US dollars / ton, down 2.4% on a week on week basis. (3) as of December 10, the railway transfer in volume of Qinhuangdao port was 519000 tons, an increase of 35000 tons on a week on week basis. (4) As of December 10, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.87 million tons, with a decrease of 430000 tons; the inventory of Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) was 1.855 million tons, with a decrease of 204000 tons.
Coking coal: the price of coking coal in China was flat month on month, and the inventory of coking plants decreased month on month. (1) As of December 10, the price increase (including tax) of Shanxi main coking coal depot of Jingtang Port was 2350 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. (2) as of December 9, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine was 363.75 US dollars / ton, an increase of 8.42% week on week. (3) as of December 10, the total coking coal inventory of 100 independent coking plants in China was 5.9227 million tons, an increase of 2000 tons week on week.
Coke: the price was flat month on month, and the operating rate of coking plant increased. (1) As of December 10, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2560 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. (2) as of December 10, the coke oven productivity of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 61.58%, with a weekly increase of 1.34%. (3) as of December 10, the national blast furnace operating rate was 46.69%, with a weekly decrease of 1.10%. (4) As of December 10, three types of coking enterprises (production capacity)
<100 万吨；产能 100-200 万吨；产能>
2 million tons) total coke inventory was 464100 tons, with a decrease of 137100 tons around the ring.
Review of industry highlights: (1) the first batch of contracts signed in 2022 coal fair exceeded 260 million tons (2) Rizhao’s annual coal unloading capacity will reach 50 million tons by 2023 (3) coal power linkage has been expanded repeatedly, and the marketization of on grid electricity price has helped thermal power enterprises get out of trouble (4) Hebei Province took the lead in forming the whole chain rapid inspection capacity of bulk coal in China (5) From January to October, the total profit of Coal Enterprises above designated size was 543.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 210.2%
Risk tip: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Coal import impact risk.
