Key investment points
Event: on December 12, 2021, the general office of the State Council issued the cold chain logistics development plan for the 14th five year plan.
Background: the introduction of the 14th five year plan for cold chain logistics fully demonstrates the importance that policy makers attach to cold chain logistics. 1) Long term background: industrial upgrading and expansion of domestic demand, comprehensive upgrading of modern agriculture, food industry, pharmaceutical industry and service industry, and increasing demand for high-quality, refined and personalized cold chain logistics services; During the 14th Five Year Plan period, with the continuous upgrading of consumption structure of urban and rural residents, higher requirements are put forward for cold chain logistics. 2) Short term factors: strengthen the new requirements of cold chain logistics for cold chain product safety and epidemic prevention and control. Especially since the outbreak of covid-19 pneumonia, cold chain logistics has undertaken the arduous task of ensuring the safe distribution of vaccines and the stable supply of food. It is required to improve the professional service and emergency treatment capacity of cold chain logistics. 3) International factors: implement high-level opening to the outside world, create new opportunities for the development of cold chain logistics, deepen trade exchanges with relevant countries, expand the scale of food import and export, and promote the integration of China's international cold chain logistics standards. 4) Double carbon goal: the energy consumption level of cold chain logistics, warehousing, transportation and other links is high. Under the background of achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, it is faced with the prominent contradiction between scale expansion and carbon emission control. Conclusion: the time and background of the release of the 14th five year plan of cold chain logistics fully shows the importance of policy makers, and has a deep understanding, strict layout and perfect system of the urgency and importance of the development of cold chain logistics.
Content: vertically expand the full range of services such as meat, fruit, water, quick freezing and medical treatment from the "first kilometer" of origin to the "last kilometer" of the city. 1) Infrastructure: build about 100 national backbone cold chain logistics bases, build a batch of production and marketing cold chain centralized distribution centers, focus on the "first kilometer" of origin and the "last kilometer" of the city, supplement the short boards of cold chain logistics facilities at both ends, and basically build a national backbone cold chain logistics base as the core A three-level cold chain logistics node facility network supported by production and marketing cold chain centralized distribution center and cold chain logistics facilities at both ends. 2) Development objectives: the level of cold chain logistics technology and equipment has been significantly improved, the total amount of cold storage and refrigerated vehicles has maintained a reasonable and stable growth, the temperature compliance rate of cold chain logistics has been comprehensively improved, and the temperature compliance rate of cold storage facilities in the national backbone cold chain logistics base has reached the world-class level. The low temperature treatment rates of meat, fruits and vegetables and aquatic products reached 85%, 30% and 85% respectively, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) postpartum loss and food circulation waste were significantly reduced. 3) Expand categories: focus on the "6 + 1" key categories (meat, fruits, vegetables, aquatic products, dairy products, frozen foods and other major fresh foods, vaccines and other pharmaceutical products), and strengthen the construction of cold chain logistics facilities. Conclusion: since the second half of 2020, the prosperity of cold chain logistics industry has continued to this day. In the first three quarters of 2021, Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) , Bingshan Refrigeration & Heat Transfer Technologies Co.Ltd(000530) , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) Revenue growth was 38.65%, 31.09% and 34.37% respectively. Previously, the market has been worried about the sustainability of the industry boom. However, we read through the 14th five year plan released this time, whether it is from the "first kilometer" of origin to the "last kilometer" of the city vertically, or expanding the full range of services such as meat, fruit, water, quick freezing and medical treatment horizontally. The contents of the plan focus on and focus on the construction of cold chain logistics facilities, On the one hand, China's cold chain logistics equipment and facilities have their own shortcomings and need to make up for them; On the other hand, consumption upgrading and epidemic factors put forward higher requirements for the continuous upgrading of cold chain logistics equipment and facilities. Therefore, we judge that the introduction of the 14th five year plan for cold chain logistics will continue to improve the prosperity of the industry and the performance growth of leading companies will continue to increase.
Target: Policy catalysis + market space + consumer demand + technical standards, multi factors continue to catalyze the prosperity of the industry, and leading equipment manufacturers [ Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) ] fully benefit. With the boost and catalysis of multiple positive factors, the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to improve. According to the 14th five year plan of the cold chain, the scale of China's cold chain logistics market will exceed 380 billion yuan in 2020. We expect that by 2025, the total scale of China's cold chain logistics market will be about 915.4 billion yuan, an increase of 140.89% compared with 2020, and the EPS of leading equipment manufacturer [ Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) ] from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.46, 0.59 0.73 yuan, corresponding to 28, 22 and 18 times of PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: raw material prices, intensified industry competition, and the development of cold chain logistics industry does not meet expectations
