Profit rebounded + valuation fell, and the value of plate allocation increased
The stabilization of real estate policy + a large inflow of foreign capital significantly outperformed the household appliance sector last week. Last week, the high-level meeting was held to determine the tone of “stable growth” for next year’s economic situation. In terms of real estate policy, the meeting proposed to ensure the “virtuous circle” of the industry under the principle of “housing without speculation”. Because urban policies support reasonable housing demand, we judge that cities with high real estate sales pressure are expected to make marginal adjustments to the previous strict policies in the future. Steady economic growth + large inflow of foreign capital, and the market performance of the real estate chain and consumer sector is collectively upward, Since December, the home appliance index has risen by 6.0% (as of December 10), outperforming the market by 4.1 percentage points, among which chef electricity and central air conditioning, which are highly related to real estate, have greater elasticity. In terms of fundamentals, we selected 17 home appliance stocks as the research object, and their overall ROE (TTM) has been in the downward channel since the peak in mid-18 years, and the roe in the third quarter of 20 years (TTM) was the lowest value of 17%, and then hit the bottom and rebounded. As of the third quarterly report of 21, ROE (TTM) rebounded to 21%, still 23% lower than the historical average (the first quarterly report of 2014 – the third quarterly report of 2021). Looking forward to 2022, the bad situation of the household appliance sector is gradually passivated + the valuation is low, and the better allocation time point is approaching. (1) Bearish passivation: raw material prices open a downward channel, the superposition base increases, and the upstream cost pressure decreases marginally in 2022. (2) low valuation: the overall PE valuation of core household appliance stocks falls below the historical average. (3) Increase in allocation value: the experience of the past 16 years shows that Q4 is the period with the highest winning rate in the whole year, during which the probability of excess return of household appliances is as high as 65%. It is suggested to pay attention to three main lines: (1) traditional leaders benefiting from the recovery of fundamentals, pay attention to Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) , Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ; (2) pay attention to Hisense Visual Technology Co.Ltd(600060) , equity reform catalysis + laser TV volume + products going abroad; (3) Emerging household appliances with high prosperity include Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) .
Fundamentals: the decline in real estate sales expanded in October, the traditional categories gradually recovered, and the growth rate of clean appliances slowed down
Real estate data: from January to October, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 7.3% year-on-year, and in October 2021, the sales area decreased by 22% year-on-year. The decline was further expanded, mainly due to the shortage of mortgage loan amount caused by real estate regulation and the decline of residents’ enthusiasm for house purchase, and the sales of new housing markets in various regions further declined. From January to October, the completed area of houses was + 16.3% year-on-year, including – 21.3% year-on-year in October, and the growth rate of completed area fell sharply. Looking forward to the follow-up, the regulatory policies have shown signs of marginal relaxation, but the liquidity problems of some real estate enterprises continue to ferment, and the confidence of financial institutions in the credit of real estate enterprises is still insufficient. It is expected that the cooling trend of the real estate market will continue in the next two months.
Production and marketing of household appliances: (1) Air conditioning: in terms of delivery, the domestic sales of air conditioning from January to October were + 7% year-on-year, compared with – 8% in the same period of 19 years, and the domestic sales in a single month in October were + 1% year-on-year, mainly due to the recovery of the demand for goods preparation on national day and double 11; the export from January to October was + 13% year-on-year, compared with + 19% in the same period of 19 years, and the export in a single month in October was + 10% year-on-year, mainly due to the strong overseas demand. Retail: the omni channel retail volume / volume of air conditioning in October was And hot sales on the double ten front line. In terms of price, online / offline prices maintained high growth in October, with a year-on-year increase of + 16% / + 7% respectively; (2) Kitchen appliances: in October, the volume / volume of all-channel retail sales of range hoods was – 20% / – 11% year-on-year, and the poor prosperity was mainly due to the excessive release of demand at the beginning of the year and the downturn of real estate sales; (3) kitchen appliances: from January to October, the volume / volume of kitchen appliances was – 12% / – 13% year-on-year, of which the retail volume / volume of wall breaking cooking machines was – 18% / – 28% year-on-year respectively. (4) cleaning appliances: take sweeping / washing machines as an example, from January to October China’s online sales of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , {Tianke}, Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) increased significantly year-on-year, by + 52%, + 740% and + 51% respectively, of which the sales in October 2021 were + 52%, + 409% and + 174% year-on-year respectively.
Risk analysis: real estate sales are less than expected; The cost of raw materials has risen sharply; The local currency appreciated sharply.
