Summary of the latest developments 1 Semi: in the next three years, the global semiconductor silicon wafer shipments will hit a record high year by year. It is expected that the shipment volume of semiconductor silicon wafers next year will increase by 6.4% compared with this year. It will reach 15.587 billion square inches in 2023 and 16 billion square inches in 2024. The shipment volume in the next three years will reach an all-time high year by year. We believe that benefiting from the rapid development of 5g terminals and intelligent electric vehicles, the global semiconductor industry will still maintain rapid growth. As the most critical semiconductor material, silicon wafer will continue to be in strong demand in the future. The substantial expansion of global wafer factories will also directly drive the demand for silicon wafers. According to semi statistics, global semiconductor manufacturers will start building 19 new high-capacity wafer factories by the end of this year, and start building 10 more in 2022. Based on the equivalent calculation of 200mm wafers, these 29 wafer factories demand about 2.6 million silicon wafers per month. According to the wafer plant expansion plan, a large number of new capacity will be released from the second half of 2022 to 2023, when the global large-size semiconductor silicon wafer may face a shortage. 2. Optimistic about the domestic substitution opportunities of semiconductor silicon wafers. The global semiconductor silicon market is mainly monopolized by overseas manufacturers. The top five semiconductor silicon manufacturers in the world are Japan’s Xinyue chemistry, SUMCO, China Taiwan’s global wafer, Germany’s SiltronicAG and South Korea’s SKSiltron. The top five manufacturers occupy 85% of the total semiconductor silicon market in the world. At present, only a few enterprises in China have 12 inch semiconductor wafer manufacturing technology, the localization rate is less than 1%, and the localization rate of 8-inch silicon wafer is only 10%. The demand for domestic substitution of silicon wafer in Chinese wafer factories is very strong. With the continuous technological breakthrough and capacity expansion of Chinese manufacturers, we are optimistic about the domestic substitution opportunities of silicon wafers in the future. It is recommended to focus on Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) (605358. SH), National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) (688126. SH), and Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) (002129. SZ).
Driven by the strong demand for 5g terminals and automobile electrification from the perspective of industry configuration, the profit end of the electronics industry will accelerate growth in 2021 and maintain the “recommended” rating. In terms of domestic substitution of semiconductors, It is recommended to pay attention to Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) (0981. HK), Huahong semiconductor (1347. HK), etc.; in the design field, Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) (300782. SZ), Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) (600745. SH), Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) (688008. SH), etc.; in the equipment field, it is recommended to pay attention to Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) (002371. SZ), Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) (688012. SH), etc. in the automotive electronics field, it is recommended to pay attention to the intelligent cockpit company Foryou Corporation(002906) (002906. SZ), camera enterprise sunny optical technology (2382. HK), Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) (002036. SZ), Ofilm Group Co.Ltd(002456) (002456. SZ), and vehicle specification CIS supplier Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) (603501. SH). In terms of consumer electronics, it is recommended to pay attention to VR leading manufacturer Goertek Inc(002241) (002241. SZ) and Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) (002475. SZ), Avary Holding (Shenzhen) Co.Limited(002938) the core targets of iPhone industry chain (002938. SZ), etc. in terms of LED, it is suggested to pay attention to the downstream display faucet Leyard Optoelectronic Co.Ltd(300296) (300296. SZ), LED chip faucet Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) (600703. SH) and China led solid crystal machine faucet Shenzhen Xinyichang Technology Co.Ltd(688383) (688383. SH).
Risk tip: the semiconductor boom is weak, and the risk of domestic substitution is less than expected.
