Content summary
Electric vehicles: 1) resumption: in 2021, production and sales exceeded expectations, global production and sales nearly doubled, price elasticity dominated + sales elasticity followed up, and the secondary market industrial chain company has a magnificent market in the high momentum; 2) Outlook: in 2022, the global new energy vehicle boom will continue, the growth rate will move down, the price elasticity will switch to the sales elasticity, and pay attention to the elasticity of the U.S. market and the direction of technological progress; 3) Choice: with the decline of industry growth, price and price expectation next year, the profitability of the industrial chain will be differentiated. It is recommended to repair the profitability, sales elasticity and technological progress.
Photovoltaic: photovoltaic has entered the “parity era”, and the volume and price of the industry will rise together in 2021. With the release of production capacity in all links, the installed capacity of the industry is expected to reach 200GW + and yoy 30% + in 2022. It is expected that the average annual compound growth rate of installed capacity of the industry will reach 20% in the next five years. After this year’s stress test, the downstream acceptance of component prices has increased significantly, and the industry is expected to enter a virtuous cycle of increasing volume and stabilizing profits. It is suggested to focus on the components with increased share concentration, aluminum frame and battery chip with new technological changes.
Wind power: the industry has entered a new development cycle. With the rapid decline of costs and the continuous improvement of consumption, China’s wind power installation center is expected to continue to move upward from 2022. At the same time, the acceleration of the process of large-scale wind turbines will drive the continuous optimization of the industrial chain pattern. It is suggested to focus on the tower link with the rapid increase of industry concentration and the submarine cable link with high entry barriers.
Energy storage: energy storage is a necessary part of global energy transformation. It is in the rapid introduction period, and electrochemical energy storage has gradually become the mainstream. It is expected that the average annual compound growth rate of installed capacity will reach 80% in the next five years, and the installed scale is expected to reach 200 GWH + in 2025. Driven by the supporting energy storage policy of new energy, it is expected that China’s large-scale energy storage projects will usher in accelerated development. It is suggested to focus on thermal management, fire fighting and integrators with high profit and order fulfillment.
Risk tips: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the industrial policies related to new energy are changed, the price of the industrial chain fluctuates sharply, the industry competition intensifies, etc.
