The central bank released financial statistics for November. At the end of November, the balance of RMB loans was 191.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, 0.2pct lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year And 1.1pct. In November, RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 160.5 billion yuan. At the end of November, the balance of RMB deposits was 231.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, 0.5pct lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year And 2.1pct. In November, RMB deposits increased by 1.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 961.2 billion yuan.
The loan growth rate continued to decline, and the accumulated capacity made a good start. New loans showed a year-on-year decrease again, which was mainly dragged down by the year-on-year decrease in short loans and bill financing, as well as the base in the same period last year. During the year, the loan was put in front, and the annual growth rate was high before and low after. Near the end of the year, banks also began to reserve credit resources for the coming year, and the credit supply was mainly stable. In December, under the influence of RRR reduction and loose real estate policies, some loans were invested in real estate to alleviate the pressure of real estate enterprises, but generally pay more attention to the loan layout in the coming year.
The deposits of residents and enterprises increased, and the fiscal non bank deposits flowed out. The issuance of government bonds in the early stage is approaching the end of the year, fiscal expenditure is accelerating, fiscal deposits are flowing out, and residents’ and enterprise deposits are increasing. In November, the difference between deposits and loans was 39.53 trillion yuan, a month on month decrease of 130 billion yuan; The deposit loan ratio rose to 82.89%, a month on month increase of 14bp, exceeding 2.30pct year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: at present, the entity’s credit demand has not fully recovered, and the subsequent policies of comprehensively reducing the reserve requirement and reducing the small refinancing interest rate for agricultural expenditure may effectively stimulate the entity’s financing demand. Recently, policies have been issued frequently to basically complete structural correction and adjustment, slow down the capital pressure of real estate enterprises, and provide long-term effective funds for subsequent economic growth. When the financing demand of enterprises recovers, the bottom of credit growth can be achieved. At present, the valuation of the sector is low, and the risk of suppressing bank performance in the early stage is gradually cleared. The wide monetary policy can effectively improve bank profitability and asset quality. It is suggested to pay attention to banks with comprehensive business layout, stable asset quality and market competitive advantage; China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) 、 Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) 、 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 、 Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) 、 Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) 、 Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) 、 Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) 。 Maintain the rating of “synchronous market” in the industry.
Risk tip: economic growth is less than expected; Policy regulation exceeded expectations.
